In the eyes of Big East Conference coaches, Pitt sophomore center Chris Taft was not one of the top 15 players in the league this season. They named first-, second- and third-team all-stars earlier this month, and Taft only garnered honorable mention.

In the eyes of some National Basketball Association scouts, however, Taft is considered one of the top 15 players eligible for the June draft. If that leaves you scratching your head, you're not alone.

Taft and many young players like him who are either in their early college years or still in high school are graded by professional basketball executives not on their production but on their potential.

"The NBA draft has been like the Major League Baseball draft for the past few years," said former St. John's coach Fran Fraschilla, a college basketball analyst who also scouts draft-eligible players for ESPN.

"It's all about potential. You have a better chance of missing than hitting with these guys because it's strictly based on potential. When you're dealing with that, you're dealing with a lot of room for error. One-third of these guys hit it big and the other two-thirds are role players or busts."

Those are the percentages Taft and his family are considering at the moment. A 6-foot-10, 260-pounder with a world of talent but questionable work ethic, Taft must decide by May 14 whether he will return to Pitt for his junior year or make himself eligible for the NBA draft June 28.

Taft averaged 13.3 points and 7.5 rebounds per game for the Panthers this past season. He was the third-leading scorer and second-leading rebounder on the team. Many NBA scouts love his athleticism, but others are not confident he has enough of a post game to be consistently successful in the NBA.

Those discrepancies make Taft one of the most controversial prospects of the year. In various mock drafts on basketball Web sites (nbadraft.net, probasketball.com and collegehoopsnet.com), Taft is projected as a top-10 pick, but he could slide as other high school, college and international players declare.

"Could Chris Taft go in the lottery? Possibly," Fraschilla said. "But he would be better served to stay and dominate in the Big East for a year. This season, it was one night he looked like a first-round pick and the next night it looked like he didn't care about being out there. I was disappointed with Chris' sophomore year. I thought he would dominate the [Big East]. I can see him going anywhere from No. 5 to 25."

Taft has kept a low profile since Pitt's season ended and could not be reached for comment.

Being a lottery pick, which means being selected among the top 13 players, is not a guarantee of success in the NBA. There are the obvious success stories of underclassmen coming out early such as Carmelo Anthony and Dwyane Wade, but there are many others who struggle to remain in the league.

Here's a sampling of a few players drafted as lottery picks the past four years who are having a difficult time making it professionally:

* Chris Wilcox, a player Taft has been compared to in the past, left the University of Maryland after his sophomore season in 2002 and was taken by the Los Angeles Clippers with the eighth overall selection. Wilcox (6-10, 235) is foundering on one of the least successful franchises in the NBA. He is averaging 7.5 points and 4.1 rebounds in 18 minutes per game and was recently told by Clippers coach Mike Dunleavy that he would have to earn his way back into the playing rotation.

* Eddie Griffin (6-10, 240) declared for the draft in 2001 after his freshman season at Seton Hall and was drafted with the seventh pick by the New Jersey Nets. Griffin is playing for the Minnesota Timberwolves, his third team in four seasons, and is averaging 7.7 points and 6.4 rebounds in 21 minutes per game.

* Rodney White (6-9, 230) turned professional after his freshman season at Charlotte in '01 and was drafted by the Detroit Pistons with the ninth pick. White also is with his third NBA team (Golden State) and is averaging 4.9 points and 1.5 rebounds in 11 minutes per game.

And that's not counting players like Kwame Brown, the No. 1 overall pick in '01, who skip college and go directly from high school to the NBA. Brown (6-11, 243) is averaging 6.5 points and 5.3 rebounds in 21 minutes a game for the Washington Wizards.

Like Taft, those players are forwards or centers. NBA teams gamble on size much more frequently than they gamble on guards.

"The NBA covets size," said former Duke player Jay Bilas, also an ESPN college basketball analyst. "For the most part, Sebastian Telfair was the first guard to leave out of high school. With a guard, you're more likely to know what you're getting.

"I don't think Taft is a top pick, but that doesn't mean he won't be. It only takes one team. I think he has a long way to go. He's raw. His footwork isn't very good. He is very limited. But none of that means that he won't be a first-round pick. If he wants to go get a paycheck, he could certainly do that."

Sometimes, finances play the biggest role in these decisions. The top 18 picks in the NBA draft last year are guaranteed three-year contracts worth more than $1 million a year. Taft must decide whether he wants to take the money and a calculated risk with his long-term future or come back and make himself a more complete player who is better-prepared to play right away in the NBA.

It is a decision Fraschilla said he should consider long and hard.

"LeBron James was a can't-miss. Kevin Garnett was a can't-miss," Fraschilla said. "On an occasion, there are a certain number of guys who are can't-miss. Chris is not a can't-miss.

"Chris fits into the range of someone who could be a good pro or he could be out of the league quickly and having to learn to learn a second language. Chris could be in a situation two years from now where he's playing in Turkey. Chris' stock would rise if he focused on having one great college season"