WASHINGTON -- The presidential campaign ended in November, but the battle over restructuring Social Security is beginning to feel like 2004 all over again.
As Republican members of Congress return home for the two-week Easter recess charged with convincing constituents that action on Social Security is needed this year, some of their districts will be awash in millions of dollars of political advertising arguing both sides of the issue. And some lawmakers will find themselves literally chased from event to event by liberal-leaning groups determined to persuade the public against the president's proposal to use Social Security payroll taxes to create personal retirement accounts.
In the highly partisan atmosphere surrounding the Social Security issue, more than a dozen independent groups have sprung up to argue their point of view. Over the next two weeks they may hold even more public events than members of Congress. They also plan to mount protests targeting lawmakers, companies and interest groups who support the president's proposal.
"It is not at all dissimilar from a political campaign, except this campaign doesn't have candidates -- it basically has two sides to an issue," said Brad Woodhouse, spokesman for the newly formed Americans United to Protect Social Security, which opposes personal investment accounts and is backed with money from major labor organizations. "We are going to be getting in the faces of people who are for privatization; they're going to feel the heat. ... It's vociferous, it's rough, it's tough."
Republican Pennsylvania Sen. Rick Santorum -- a prime target of the opposition groups in the next two weeks -- said meaningful discussion about Social Security has essentially dissolved into a drive by Democrats to win seats in Congress in 2006, when he is up for re-election himself.
"It's all politics all the time, all obstruction all the time," he said.
Even though the president has not laid out a deadline for Congress to act on Social Security, the next two weeks could be a critical in determining whether any legislation affecting the venerable retirement system is enacted any time soon.
Senate Finance Committee Chairman Chuck Grassley of Iowa, who would oversee Senate action on Social Security, said in mid-February that the president had six weeks to sell his plan to the American people. Other Republicans have tried to avoid hard deadlines -- in part because polls have been mixed on how successful the president's sales efforts have been -- but Democrats clearly view the next two weeks as pivotal and are stepping up their efforts.
"Members now will have had two district work periods back in their home states and if they're not on board at this point, there won't be enough time on the legislative calendar to get anything done [on Social Security] this year," said Jim Manley, spokesman for Senate Democratic leader Harry Reid of Nevada. "The natural rhythms of Congress are such that it's going to take a while to move something through the House and Senate."
The principal players already are on the campaign trail.
President Bush visited Florida on Friday, and plans to travel from his ranch in Crawford, Texas, to Arizona, Colorado and New Mexico early this week. Vice President Dick Cheney is holding Social Security forums in Bakersfield, Calif., and Reno, Nev., early this week and is rumored to be making a stop in the Pittsburgh area on Thursday. Santorum, the No. 3 Senate Republican leader, and Senate Majority Leader Bill Frist, R-Tenn. will hold a Social Security town hall in Florida during the recess.
Santorum held 10 Social Security town halls during the previous congressional recess last month. He has one planned at Bucknell University this week, but said he would hold a series of other meetings on the topic. Republican officials could not confirm how many other Senators would conduct Social Security events over the next couple of weeks because planning is still underway, but at least 12 Democratic senators are planning Social Security forums of some type.
Gregory M. Crist, spokesman for the House Republican Conference, said he expects House lawmakers to far surpass their Social Security activities during the February recess. Over that 10-day period, he said, about 95 House lawmakers participated in 287 Social Security events. Many of the gatherings this time will be smaller and less formal than the town halls last month became easy targets for opponents to attend or disrupt.
Among the Republicans working the Social Security issue over the next two weeks will be U.S. Rep. Melissa Hart of Bradford Woods, who plans to meet with workers at nine businesses in her district to talk about Social Security and her support for personal investment accounts.
House Democratic Leader Nancy Pelosi said House Democrats will hold Social Security events in some 55 Republican districts during the congressional recess.
The most unique aspect of the Social Security lobbying, however, is the rising role of outside groups focusing on this single issue, an effort which is unparalleled in recent political history.
Progress for America, a group supporting the president's argument that Congress must immediately address Social Security's $3.7 trillion shortfall over the next 75 years and should create personal investment accounts, announced last week that it would spend $4.5 million this month on political ads promoting its agenda. That is nearly one fourth of the $20 million the group plans to spend on the Social Security issue.
One $2 million ad, which describes the Social Security problem as an iceberg and praises the president for trying to steer the country around it, is running on national cable channels. The group also is spending $1 million on a television advertisement that will run for two weeks in 30 congressional districts in 24 states.
Spokeswoman Laura Braden Dlugacz said Progress for America chose districts where members of Congress are "open-minded" about the president's proposal for personal accounts or support the plan but have not been "as vocal as they should be."
Americans United to Protect Social Security, one of the groups opposing personal retirement accounts financed by Social Security payroll taxes, is planning at least a dozen town hall meetings in the districts of lawmakers who have not made a decision on private accounts or who already support them.
Woodhouse said his group also will hold press conferences outside the district offices of some members of Congress, calling on them to oppose personal investment accounts. Labor leaders, unions and groups, including The Alliance for Retired Americans, is holding a "national day of action" to protest the president's proposal for personal accounts. They will hold rallies outside of companies like Charles Schwab, a financial firm that has expressed support for personal retirement accounts.
The AARP, one of the first major groups to oppose personal accounts, is launching its third wave of advertising this week in a campaign aimed at younger workers between the ages of 25 and 49. The ads acknowledge changes must be made to Social Security but argue that private accounts carved out of the existing Social Security system would be too drastic a change. The theme of the ads is: "If you have a problem with the sink, you don't tear down the house."
The group is also continuing to hold its own town hall meetings and mobilizing its members to attend lawmakers' events to lobby against personal accounts financed with Social Security taxes.
Republican and conservative groups also are continuing to raise money to support the president's efforts. The Club for Growth plans to raise $15 million, and the Coalition for the Modernization and Protection of America's Social Security (COMPASS) is aiming to contribute $20 million. Some of COMPASS's corporate members have dropped out, however, under heavy pressure from labor groups and protests like the ones planned against companies like Charles Schwab.
