Scientists are constantly working to develop early detection systems to warn the world of impending events with dramatic consequences like the recent tsunami. Chief executive officers and senior managers need to develop early warning systems as well.

Because just as hidden shifts in the earth's tectonic plates can create havoc, business shifts can remain beneath a leader's radar screen until a major quake occurs. And just as an earthquake changes topography, environmental tectonic shifts can change the business landscape and shake corporate foundations.

Fariborz Ghadar of Penn State's Center for Global Business Studies and Erik Peterson of the Center for Strategic and International Studies recently co-authored a forthcoming book, "Global Tectonics," based on nearly two decades of research that serves as an early warning guide for CEOs. I recently interviewed Ghadar on his research and the book.

Q: What is an example of a global tectonic that impacted the business world?

A: The Internet is a classic example. The Internet has existed for more than 35 years, but most corporations, governments, and even universities didn't realize its potential value until the mid 1980s. Since then, it has changed every facet of our lives -- religion, politics, law, transportation, supply lines, education, music, protests, communication, and the economy. Leaders who saw the early potential of the Internet were able to adjust their business strategies for the future.

Q: So a global tectonic can create a shock for an organization?

A: Absolutely. Many "brick and mortar" firms were not prepared for the Internet or underestimated it, and dot.com companies fueled the rise of the "new economy." The "dot.com" bust is an extension of the Internet tectonic. We overreacted to the shift. But once the dust settled, businesses that were tuned in to the Internet stayed competitive. They had the capacity to anticipate and adapt business operations to the trend, which gave them critical comparative advantages.

Q: So what do you think is the next business tectonic?

A: There are 12 global trends that will present the most formidable challenges to business leaders over the next 30 years. Developments in areas such as demography, infectious disease, resource degradation, economic integration, nanotechnology, information technology, international conflict and governance will determine whether corporate strategies stay intact or unravel.

Q: Infectious disease is a global tectonic?

A: Absolutely. It is harder to "isolate" a disease since global transportation systems allow diseases to spread faster. So fears of SARs impacted imports from China, which impacted just-in-time delivery systems. Some companies were on the verge of shutting down manufacturing lines.

Q: What about governance?

A: Enron's collapse is an example of a tectonic. There were numerous indicators that many companies were using questionable accounting practices, but there was little oversight or attention paid to these indicators. It certainly all changed after Enron.

Q: So what should leaders do to better anticipate and deal with tectonic changes?

A: We believe the capacity to anticipate and adapt business operations to these trends is a critical comparative advantage. The outlook for businesses increasingly will be contingent on their capacity to develop and implement a strategic vision in the face of ever more onerous shorter-term pressures. That is no small task.

Q: The record suggests that this kind of innovation in long-range positioning carries with it tremendous consequences.

A: Yes, there are many compelling examples of companies that have succeeded or failed as a result of their capacity to adapt to changing conditions. The winners and losers will be determined by their capacity to innovate -- first, by their capacity to innovate within the context of their operating environment to exploit external shifts, and second and more importantly, to adapt their strategies to account for anticipated change.

Corporations and their leaders have both the ability and the responsibility to foresee environmental shifts and adjust their strategies to these trends as they unfold. Ghadar and Petersen creatively frame this challenge with the tectonic metaphor. It is incumbent upon every senior leader to ensure that his or her firm's early warning systems are in place.