LOS ANGELES -- Last fall, after the successful premieres of scripted dramas "Lost" and "Desperate Housewives" and the simultaneous failure of multiple reality shows -- Fox's "The Next Great Champ" and "The Rebel Billionaire: Branson's Quest for the Best," ABC's "The Benefactor," NBC's "Last Comic Standing" -- conventional wisdom held that the era of reality TV was dead.

More recent ratings disasters -- Fox's "Who's Your Daddy?" and "My Big Fat Obnoxious Boss" and CBS's "Wickedly Perfect" and "The Will" -- would seem to prove the point.

But not so fast. We've been through this cycle before. Prior to "American Idol" becoming a hit in the summer of 2002, there was a whole raft of reality failures. Anyone remember ABC's "The Chair," Fox's "The Chamber," The WB's "No Boundaries," CBS's "American Fighter Pilot" or UPN's "Under One Roof"?

Reality didn't die then, nor did it die in 2003 when ABC's "I'm a Celebrity -- Get Me Outta Here!" and "Are You Hot?" and CBS's "Cupid" failed to catch enough viewers' attention to stick around long. Once "The Apprentice" hit it big a year ago, it encouraged another cycle of reality shows.

Despite several reality show failures last fall, this season "The Amazing Race" has become a ratings winner for the first time in its history. "American Idol" is back and bigger than ever. "Survivor" continues to hold up in the ratings, helping to give CBS a winning Thursday night. Although NBC's "The Apprentice" doesn't look as if it will have the longevity of "Survivor," plans for a spinoff with Martha Stewart in the Donald Trump role will breathe some new life into the franchise. And ratings for ABC's "Extreme Makeover: Home Edition" have skyrocketed.

Fox Entertainment president Gail Berman said everything in TV is cyclical. She points to the current dearth of comedies as an example of a genre that's down but not out and likely to rise again. What she learned from this fall's Fox reality failures was that it's never a good idea to overdose.

"We had too much of it on our schedule at one time," Berman said. "Our balance was out of whack, and that was not a good thing for us."

And that's the first reality of reality TV we'll explore.

Too much of a, uh, thing

Mike Darnell, Fox's executive vice president of specials, alternative and late-night programming, is pretty much the guru of reality TV, not just at Fox where he works, but he's pretty much the top dog for the entire industry. He's the one who sent Rick Rockwell down the aisle in "Who Wants to Marry a Multi-Millionaire?" helping to jump start the reality genre. He's the one who sent straying couples to "Temptation Island." He even wanted to crash a jumbo jet in the desert for a reality special, although the federal government nixed that idea.

Darnell said overkill will kill ya every time.

"Anytime you have 10 shows in one genre, that's too much," he said. "They start to [cancel] each other out, because, inevitably, they'll start looking like each other. That's what happened to sitcoms."

Another drawback last fall: Too many similarly themed shows due in large part to Fox imitations of series developed for other networks ("Trading Spouses" on Fox and "Wife Swap" on ABC; "Nanny 911" on Fox, "SuperNanny" on ABC) and too many reality shows airing opposite one another (ABC's "The Benefactor" vs. NBC's "Fear Factor," Fox's "Rebel Billionaire" vs. NBC's "The Biggest Loser," Fox's "The Next Great Champ" vs. UPN's "Amish in the City" vs. CBS's "The Amazing Race," NBC's "Last Comic Standing" vs. Fox's "Trading Spouses").

"There probably is a somewhat limited reality audience, and when you start airing them next to each other, it becomes harder and harder," Darnell said.

And some shows just keep viewers interested longer than others.

"Some genres within reality have a lot of steps in them," he said. " 'The Bachelor' and the relationship genre have 40 variations and can do a [ratings] number. Apparently 'The Apprentice' has one, and quite frankly that didn't come back as big as everybody expected. We miscalculated the power of that idea [with 'Rebel Billionaire']."

Controversy sells ... sometimes

Though controversy can garner attention for a reality show, it doesn't necessarily draw in viewers, as Fox found this year. Rival networks and producers accused Fox of stealing their ideas for several shows, including "The Next Great Champ," which flopped. Adoption advocates tsk-tsked "Who's Your Daddy?"

"That became a big news story, but not necessarily something that would drive people to watch the television show," he said.

Nice is the new mean?

Simon Cowell ("American Idol") with a zinger works. Lorenzo Lamas, insulting contestants with a laser pointer on ABC's 2003 series "Are You Hot?," does not. That was true two years ago and it may be more true today.

"The pendulum has sort of swung, and now the sort of mean-spirited, edgier stuff has fallen by the wayside," said Mike Fleiss, executive producer of "The Bachelor," "The Bachelorette," "The Will," "The Real Gilligan's Island" and The WB's upcoming find-an-actress reality show "The Starlet." "Now they're looking for more inspirational, feel-good stuff. ... It's just part of the genre's evolution. I think it will swing back at some point."

Fox's Darnell thinks having a mean character at the core still helps. He said one of the reasons Fox's "Rebel Billionaire" failed last fall was that star Richard Branson was too friendly.

"He's a nice guy, and that doesn't work in reality television," Darnell said. "I hate to say it, but I think you're watching for emotion and a sense of power. And while Richard is a very powerful guy, he's a very decent and wonderful human being, and that may not pay off in reality TV."

Cream rises to the top

Plain and simple, reality is a genre that's here to stay. But like comedy and drama, not all reality is created equal.

"Good TV is good TV," said Tom Shelly, an executive producer on "Survivor." "There's a rush to oversaturate with reality, maybe because they think it's a save-all, but it's not. It's the execution, it's the storytelling. That's why shows like 'Lost' and 'Desperate Housewives" are hits. ... I don't believe dramas are dead or sitcoms are dead, either. Good storytelling is good storytelling, and people will watch."

Need further proof that reality is not dead? Just look at what's coming up on the cable networks: Oxygen's "Mr. Romance" (search for the next romance book cover model), ABC Family's "Las Vegas Garden of Love" (docudrama on Las Vegas family that runs a wedding chapel), SOAPNet's "I Wanna Be a Soap Star 2" (aspiring actors vie for a soap opera role), MTV's "Meet the Barkers" (docudrama about Blink-182's Travis Barker) and CMT's "Popularity Contest" (10 big city types are dropped in a small Texas town and attempt to become the most popular).

"Much of the [upcoming cable reality shows] will fall by the wayside," Fox's Berman said, "and the most interesting, fun concepts will pop."

Besides, this fall the networks will likely do what they always do, chase success. That means you can expect to see clones of "Lost" and "Desperate Housewives." And when those shows start to cancel each other out, reality shows will be waiting in the wings to take their place.