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Connected: The 7 tech trends of '04
Thursday, January 06, 2005

Just when you thought the tech industry was breathing its last breaths, 2004 came along to resuscitate the business in all its electronic splendor. More than just a massive initial public offering by Google -- the tech trends were moving forward with force only overtaken by the dot.com boom and the invention of the personal computer. Here is my list of the seven trends in 2004 showing high tech has regained its luster.

1. Business confidence in the big deals. Google led us astray with talk of a nontraditional IPO, then finally came through with an unorthodox, but more conventional IPO than many "tech-sperts" expected. The search engine leader kept us on the edge of our seats (and with our hands poised on our checkbooks) as it prepared its mind-boggling $23 billion offering. Its $85-per-share initial price was much lower than the $135 that the company hoped it would bring. But over the year, the price still rose, in a traditional fashion, climbing past $192 per share despite Google's efforts to keep the share price constant and the shareholders thinking loooooong term.

IBM was thinking long term, too, as it unloaded its low margin PC business to Beijing-based Lenovo for $1.75 billion. But it also took an 18.9 percent stake in the new company.

In relative silence, large deals blossomed elsewhere. America Online purchased Advertising.com for $435 million, gaining access to ad purchasing technology and clients. Even domain names woke up. In July, a small Texas company paid $2.75 million for creditcards.com, one of the largest domain name sales since the dot.com hysteria.

The money is waking up, but it's being selective. Big deals for established tech-based companies with real world products, such as Expedia and Orbitz, are going strong. Look for smarter money to fund better companies with smarter management teams than in the '90s.

2. Online influence on consumer spending grows to new heights. It's hard to find a consumer who didn't turn to the Web during 2004 to make a purchase -- or least help make a purchase. According to comScore Media Metrix, 128 million consumers visited retail Web sites during November. That's 80 percent of the U.S. Internet population. Seasonal spending online is expected to top $15 billion -- another record year for online purchases. That doesn't mean that we're all buying online yet, though. According to another study conducted by comScore on behalf of Overture (a Yahoo! company), 92 percent of the consumers who searched for a consumer electronics or computer products online actually bought the product off-line.

3. Bloggers impact the vote. Grass-roots campaign efforts have taken root online as Web sites -- both official candidate sites and unofficial sites -- have become a major source of candidate information. So have blogs, those unpredictable, often stream-of-consciousness journals created to help you understand the issues or feed you propaganda for one candidate or another, depending on your frame of reference. Now anybody can become Matt Drudge.

4. Intruders at your electronic doorstep causing more concern than ever. I hate to say I told you so, but I will anyway. The CAN-SPAM Act is not working, as spam now accounts for more than 60 percent of e-mail traffic. Virus counts are climbing. According to Panda Software, there are now more than 88,000 known viruses. America Online found spyware on 80 percent of the user systems it examined. Phishing and identity theft are now common terms. Phishing schemes are created to falsely lure unsuspecting consumers to what appears to be a corporate Web site designed to capture information such as their Social Security numbers, credit card numbers or bank account numbers.

Numbers 5 through 7. The rest of the list reads like a wish list for the average consumer. Wi-Fi wireless networking, MP3 music downloading services and digital photography are all growing at double-digit rates and are likely to be integral parts of our businesses and homes.

First published on January 6, 2005 at 12:00 am
David Radin is a consultant and nationally syndicated radio show host. You can sign up for his tip letter and find an archive of his previous columns at www.MegabyteMinute.com. Mail him your questions david.pg050106@spamslicer.com.
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