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Human toll seen higher than economic toll from quake
Tuesday, December 28, 2004

The initial toll from the devastation in southern Asian areas hit by tsunami waves this weekend is likely to be more human than economic, given the extreme poverty of many of the regions.


 
 
Online Graphic: Economic Impact

See a graphic showing demographic and economic data about the affected region in southern Asia.

   

 
But the sheer scale of dealing with the human tragedy itself could have its own effect on those economies, and other economic costs also could begin piling up, especially if disease spreads due to unsanitary conditions.

One of the biggest immediate concerns was the potential impact on tourism, an important source of foreign exchange earnings, in countries hardest hit by the giant walls of water that came crashing over coastlines Sunday morning with little or no warning.

In the tiny country of the Maldives in the Indian Ocean, a group of islands located about 600 miles southwest of the southern tip of India, tourism makes up more than half of all earnings of foreign currency, according to the CIA World Factbook.

Despite the terrible human toll of the tsunamis -- which killed more than 22,000 people -- insured losses could end up being anywhere from several hundred million dollars to a few billion dollars, according to Robert Hartwig, an economist with the Insurance Information Institute in New York. That's far below the $20 billion insurers paid out in Florida after four hurricanes struck the state this year.

"Most structures tend to either not be insured at all, or have relatively low values if they are in fact insured," Hartwig said. "The biggest coverage costs will be from resorts and from properties owned by multinational corporations. The overwhelming majority of losses won't be covered by insurance in this event."

Asian and European insurers were far more likely to lose money than American companies, which generally do not have a large presence in southeast Asia, according to Kathy Bostjancic, a senior economist at Merrill Lynch.

And while Jan Egeland, the U.N. emergency relief coordinator, estimated that total damages would likely be in the "many billions of dollars," investors did not initially seem to see a grave overall threat to the region's economy from the disaster.

Some regional stock indexes and tourism-related stocks fell in Asia yesterday, but the impact was limited. Singapore's main stock index slipped 0.2 percent, and Thailand's index was off 1 percent.

There also has been very little impact on the global oil and gas trade. Exxon Mobil Corp. suffered a temporary "minor disruption" in its natural gas liquefaction operations outside of Banda Aceh, an Indonesian city on the northern tip of Sumatra island, a company spokesman said. But production was restored by Sunday afternoon.

Pertamina, Indonesia's state-owned oil and gas company, said yesterday that it was loading LNG into ships headed for South Korea and Japan.

Bob Ineson, a natural gas expert at Cambridge Energy Research Associates in Houston, said the bulk of the production and processing that helps make Indonesia the world's largest exporter of liquefied natural gas takes place off the east coast of Borneo, well out of harm's way from the epicenter of the quake, which was to the west of Sumatra.

Indonesia, the only Asian member of the Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries, accounts for roughly 2.7 billion cubic feet a day, or 15 percent, of the global LNG trade.

The regions hurt most by the tsunamis did not have much in the way of heavy industry, and many people there lived off the land as farmers and fishermen. Sri Lanka and Indonesia, for example, have only about one-tenth of the economic output per person as the United States.

That means it will be both difficult and expensive for those governments to get help there, said Robert Hormats, an economist with Goldman Sachs in New York.

"The budgetary costs just for the humanitarian relief and reconstruction will be enormous, which will put a lot of pressure on the budgets of countries that are not wealthy," Hormats said.

Even worse, the likelihood of serious diseases spreading through the region in the aftermath of the quake from contaminated drinking water is sure to have a major economic impact on those countries, Hormats said.

"In Florida when you have a flood or hurricane, there is very quick disaster relief," Hormats said. "You have roads, telecommunications and other resources, health care workers, police, construction crews -- and in these places you have none of that."

Many countries have already pledged millions of dollars in aid to the region. And the World Bank, a specialized agency of the United Nations, likely will redirect money from existing projects in the Asian nations devastated by earthquakes and flooding to provide immediate assistance for reconstruction. The agency offers low-interest loans, interest-free credit and grants for projects in developing countries.

A broader relief package for long-term efforts will follow to help the region recover from the damage, World Bank spokesman Damian Milverton said in Washington.

While the cleanup from the devastation will be a daunting task, the resulting economic activity might actually be a boon for the region, said Merrill Lynch economist Bostjancic. With the expected outpouring of economic aid for rebuilding, the economies of the affected countries could actually rise, which could help offset the expected losses in tourism income.

First published on December 28, 2004 at 12:00 am