The Penguins have a pretty simple equation for long-term viability here. It's a two-part proposition: The Penguins believe they need an owner-friendly collective bargaining agreement with NHL players to contain costs and a new arena to enhance revenues.

Get both, team officials contend, and they can be competitive with just about anyone. Remove either element, they say, and the numbers just won't work. At which time the only mystery becomes whether the franchise will relocate or just fold.

Penguins owner Mario Lemieux seems convinced the NHL's ongoing lockout ultimately will yield the kind of CBA the team wants. But despite an undercurrent of optimism in some circles that a new arena is a near-certainty, Lemieux views it as a coin-toss.

"The CBA, we're going to fix it," he said. "The CBA's going to be fixed. The chances of getting a building, I'd say it's 50-50 right now."

There appears, however, to be nothing iffy about how the Penguins will respond if Mellon Arena, where the team's lease runs through the 2006-07 season, isn't replaced. If that is how things play out, the Penguins' remaining time here will be measured in months, if not minutes.

"If there's no new building, there's no chance the team's going to be here," Lemieux said. "Even in two years."

The only realistic hope of building a new arena appears to be with money generated by a stand alone slots casino to be built in the city. The Penguins are one of several groups planning to bid for the license to operate that slots parlor, and they would dedicate part of the revenue it generates to construction of a new building. There also appears to be considerable political support for having whoever receives the slots license direct a portion of their earnings toward construction of an arena.

Lemieux confirmed that the Penguins' plan to lay out their proposal for running the slots parlor -- and how to spend the revenue it produces -- at some point, but thinks there is no urgency to do so.

"Eventually, I think we're going to have to. But it's not moving very quickly, so there's no sense for us to go out publicly and say what we're going to do."

He was adamant, though, that "there's going to have to be some support locally, as well" for building a new venue, but he would not elaborate.

Groups in several cities, including Houston and Kansas City, have expressed interest in securing NHL franchise, and Lemieux acknowledged that, "There are a lot of people out there who have been inquiring. About us."

Nonetheless, Lemieux said no one has made an offer to buy the Penguins. And he and his partners aren't interested in entertaining one at this point.

"Right now, we're not dealing with that," he said. "We just want to see if we can get things done here. If not, we'll see what's out there."

A more pressing concern is the lockout, which already has wiped out nearly 300 games. Lemieux, though, claims to have no misgivings about having the league shut down this fall.

"None at all," he said. "We have to fix it, from [ownership's] side, once and for all. We can't continue this way."

While he expects the dispute to do some damage to the Penguins' fan base, he believes the team should be able to win back any supporters it loses during the lockout.

"It's going to be difficult, but anytime you can put a good product on the ice and win some games, the fans are going to come back," Lemieux said. "That's important for us to do that. Try to see what happens here and see what the CBA looks like. Maybe we'll have a chance to spend a little bit more money in free agency and get a good product on the ice. Get our fans to come back."

NOTES -- NHL commissioner Gary Bettman will meet with the 30 general managers next week in New York.