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Editorial: Kosovo votes / But ballots don't end the problems
Monday, November 01, 2004

The parliamentary elections in Kosovo earlier this month unfortunately didn't solve any problems, even though their having taken place peacefully was an accomplishment of a sort.

The more than 90 percent Albanian majority of the territory turned out in reasonable force to elect the 120 members of a provisional legislature. The Serbian minority boycotted the elections for the most part, even though Kosovo's ethnic minorities were guaranteed 10 seats.

The United Nations, which has administered the territory, still part of Serbia, since 1999, with the help of some 19,000 peacekeeping forces, is left basically banging its head against the wall in terms of future prospects for Kosovo.

There are two possible outcomes, both of which are loaded with problems. In the best of all possible worlds, Kosovo would be brought to independence with a majority Albanian ethnic government in power. That government would guarantee credibly the rights of the Serb minority, reflecting Serbs' important religious and historical roots in Kosovo.

Serbia would agree, with the rights of the Serbs in Kosovo assured. Albania would agree, recognizing that the Albanian Kosovars are different from them and want their own country. The United Nations would be beside itself with joy, finally able to off-load responsibility for Kosovo.

The problem is that it would be extremely difficult to assure the Serbs in Kosovo that an Albanian government would respect their rights. In March Albanians attacked Serbs in Kosovo, killing 19, displacing 4,000, and burning houses and churches. And, if the Serbs in Kosovo were not persuaded of the correctness of an Albanian government, a Serbian government in Belgrade could not take the risk of agreeing to such an outcome, given the inflammatory character of the Kosovo issue in internal Serbian politics.

The other possible solution, equally problematical for different reasons, would be to annex the part of Kosovo inhabited by Serbs to Serbia. The Serbs in Kosovo would probably agree to that. Serbia would accept it if the rest of the world did. Kosovar Albanians might not be entirely enthusiastic about losing part of the territory's population and land, but if that were the price of independence they would probably go for it. Transfers of territory are always awkward, but the United Nations, too, might be prepared to accept this solution if it meant that the burden of governing Kosovo were taken off its shoulders as a result.

What would need to occur for a solution to be found would be to assemble the interested parties, including the neighboring states, the United Nations, the European Union, Russia and the United States in a high-level conference.

Such an approach will have to await the results of the U.S. elections, but should be an early foreign affairs item on the agenda of the next presidential administration. It is high time for Kosovo's future to be determined; contributing to bringing that about could be an early foreign policy triumph for a Kerry or second Bush administration. One result would be to free the some 4,000 U.S. forces still stationed there to come home, or to be sent elsewhere.

First published on November 1, 2004 at 12:00 am