Less than two weeks before Election Day, Republicans are likely to retain control of the U.S. Senate, but Democrats have a realistic chance of pulling off an upset, political analysts, pollsters and party officials said.

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In a contest nearly as tight as the presidential race, control of the Senate is expected to hinge on the outcome of nine closely fought races, nearly all of them in states where the electorate tends to favor Republicans.

The question of control may not be decided until December. If no Senate candidate captures a majority in the Nov. 2 vote in Louisiana, the top two vote getters will meet in a runoff Dec. 4.

"I give Democrats a 35 to 40 percent chance to take over," said University of Virginia political scientist Larry Sabato. "I think Republicans will wind up with 52 or 53 seats overall, but there are nine seats as tight as a tick and control of the Senate could switch depending upon coattails in the presidential race."

Republicans currently hold 51 seats, while Democrats hold 48, with the Senate's lone independent, Jim Jeffords of Vermont, voting with Democrats.

That Democrats should close out the election within striking distance of regaining control of the Senate is remarkable given that they are defending 19 seats in this election cycle to the Republicans' 15, including five Democratic vacancies in conservative Southern states -- Georgia, Florida, Louisiana, North Carolina and South Carolina.

"When people first started talking about these retirements, Democrats were in despair thinking that if they'd have to defend these five seats and plus pick up two more, it's really tough. They thought they were going to lose all five," North Carolina State University political science professor Andrew Taylor said.

"Against those doomsday scenarios six months ago, it doesn't look quite so bad now for the Democrats," Taylor said, "but it's still an uphill battle."

Republicans will almost certainly pick up a seat in Georgia, where conservative Democrat Zell Miller is retiring. Democrats, however, are expected to pick up the seat of retiring Republican Sen. Peter Fitzgerald in Illinois, where polls show Democrat Barack Obama with a massive lead over Republican Alan Keyes.

If elected, Obama will be the first black man to serve in the Senate in 26 years.

Democrats have waged surprisingly strong races in the South, with polls showing close races in Florida, North Carolina, and South Carolina. Louisiana is a wild card, but Democrats appear to have a reasonable chance of holding on to that seat as well, Taylor said.

Meanwhile, Republicans have found themselves on the defensive on traditional GOP turf -- Alaska, Colorado, Kentucky and Oklahoma.

Democrats have been helped by gaffes and missteps by several GOP candidates. In Kentucky, where two-term Republican incumbent Jim Bunning was expected to cruise to re-election, a series of incidents has led to public speculation that Bunning has health problems that sometimes cause him to behave in a bizarre and erratic manner. Bunning has denied any health problems and released letters from his doctors in response to the speculation.

In Oklahoma, Republican Tom Coburn has been dogged by controversies, including a recent public statement in which he quoted another Republican as saying that lesbianism in rural areas of the state is so rampant that high school girls are escorted to the bathroom one at a time.

Democratic candidates have also been helped by a public perception, as evidenced in national opinion polling, that the country is on the wrong track, said Sen. Jon Corzine, D-N.J., chairman of the Democratic Senatorial Campaign Committee.

"Voters know that Republicans run this town [Washington]," Corzine told the National Press Club. "If you feel we're on the wrong track, who should be held accountable? Republicans control the White House, the House of Representatives, and the Senate."

Republicans are hoping President Bush will provide their candidates a boost. Three of the closest contests are in states that Bush carried four years ago by more than 20 percent: Oklahoma, South Dakota, and Alaska. Bush carried two other states with close contests, North Carolina and South Carolina, with more than 10 percent of the vote.

Democratic candidates in those states have generally tried to position themselves to the right of party. In the marquee Senate contest, Senate Democratic leader Tom Daschle of South Dakota has been criticized for airing a TV ad that shows him hugging Bush after the president's 9/11 speech.

The Republican National Committee sent Oklahoma Democrat Brad Carson, who avoids mentioning Democratic presidential nominee John Kerry by name, a letter asking him not to run an ad that pictures him with Bush.

In Alaska, Democrat Tony Knowles, a former two-term governor, supports opening the Arctic National Wildlife Refuge to oil drilling, a move championed by Bush and opposed by Kerry and most Democrats in Congress.

"I'd pay for John Kerry to fly up to Alaska and put his arms around the Democrat nominee," said Sen. George Allen, R-Va., chairman of the National Republican Senatorial Committee, "but I don't think he'll go up there."