Penguins Q&A with Dejan Kovacevic

Friday, October 15, 2004

Q: Buffalo Bills cornerback Troy Vincent, president of the NFL Players Association, told Sportsnet in Canada this week: "The cap has worked for us, and we're in talks now for an extension."

Who do you believe, the NFLPA president who is involved in the process and has a stake in it or members of the NHL union who refuse to even understand the concepts of such an agreement?

I urge everyone, including Bob Goodenow and Gary Bettman, to read the NFLPA studies released on its Web site:

• NFL Economics Primer, April 2002
• Media Misperceptions, March 2002

Eric Bowser of Forest Hills

KOVACEVIC: For those unfamiliar with Eric's subject matter, the NHLPA long has chafed at the idea that the NFL, which has a salary cap and no guaranteed contracts, has a good labor agreement.

I offer as an example this excerpt from a story I wrote in February from St. Paul, the day before the NHL All-Star Game:

The union's staunch position that no form of salary cap will be acceptable was evident yesterday when Dallas Stars right winger Bill Guerin, an NHLPA vice president, took exception to a reporter's question suggesting that the cap system has worked for other leagues.

"Who does it work for?" he replied.

The reporter mentioned the NFL and the NBA.

"It's worked in the NFL for the owners," Guerin said. "I think the NFL's CBA is laughable. Those guys, they have no rights, they have nothing. That's why you see the owners signing seven-year, $100 million contracts, because they know they'll only have to pay $5 million of it. We want something more stable, a fair deal for both sides."

What surprised me about the exchange was not only Guerin's animated -- and seemingly rehearsed -- response, but also the manner in which he indignantly raised his voice when the reporter from Nashville asked him the question. It was as if he was just waiting to pounce on anyone suggesting that the NFL's economic system was a success.

For whatever anyone might want to say about the NFL, no one can argue that it is successful. It is so far away the most successful professional sport in the country that it is becoming increasingly silly to refer to baseball as the national pastime.

Now, there are all kinds of reasons for this, but to suggest that the league somehow succeeds despite its labor agreement is ludicrous. The NFL's contract might not be universally popular with its players -- be sure that players would accept guaranteed contracts in a heartbeat -- but Vincent's public comments this week strongly indicate football players have a firm grasp of the concept of shared wealth.

Of course, hockey has obstacles to overcome that football does not. It has a comparative pittance in national television revenue, for example, and that is the overwhelming bulk of football's financial base. It is far easier to have equity and fair revenue sharing when the national pool of money is the largest. It is much more challenging to ask the Rangers or Flyers to give up portions of their individual broadcast revenues to the Hurricanes or Predators.

But the greatest example that the NHLPA should learn from the NFL and NBA is that growth in shared wealth is possible through a true partnership. And that a true partnership is not possible until both sides agree on the relationship between revenues and salaries, an essential component of any sound business.

Q: Hi, Dejan. I noticed that you mentioned to your readers that the mailing addresses for the NHL and NHLPA should be on their Web sites. You would think so but, when I was writing letters to both a few months back, I could not for the life of me find the NHLPA's mailing address or phone number on their site. I actually had to call them to get it, and I had to get the number from an online directory.

Here are both in case you want to publish them in your next Q&A:

National Hockey League Players Association, 777 Bay Street, Suite 2400, Toronto, ON M5G 2C8
National Hockey League, 1251 Avenue of the Americas, New York, NY 10020

Dave Hartord of Portland, Maine

KOVACEVIC: Never get on a hockey fan's bad side. They send in links to long labor documents and encourage angry mail and all kinds of other evil things.

Q: Hi, Dejan. I have to take issue with you about two things.

First, your comments in the Q&A last week about the Levitt audit seem reasonable on the surface, but I don't think they hold up.

I can't imagine how any group of workers who are so outraged that owners would dare to try and restrict the cost in salaries of a single class of employee to a whopping 60 percent of revenues would possibly go all hearts and roses after being "included" in the Levitt process.

The second is that you seem to think that the lockout won't matter in terms of fans returning, that they all will be back. I don't think so.

Hockey is not the national pastime, and even baseball struggled after the last strike. Die-hard fans will be back, but the future health of the league relies more than anyone wants to admit on the more casual fan. These are the swing voters of hockey fandom. Lose them, and we all lose.

Jack Weixel of Walnut Creek, Calif.

KOVACEVIC: Taking each point one at a time ...

1. I never wrote that the players would go "hearts and flowers" if the union were to have been included in the Levitt audit. Nor did I suggest it.

What I wrote -- and meant -- was that the owners would have been able to strengthen their case against the union if the union had been involved in the audit. They would have removed the union's ability to dispute total revenues, which is only the very crux upon which this lockout is built. If you take that away, it becomes infinitely more difficult for the union to take the stance that there should be no overall relationship between revenues and salaries.

For the owners to leave the union out of the process allowed the union to claim, plain and simple, that it does not trust the owners' figures. That leaves little room for discussion.

2. I believe that the die-hard fans will be back. This is why, of course, they are known as die-hard fans. They die hard.

I also believe that the bulk of hockey's fan base is of this mentality, which is simultaneously the sport's greatest blessing and greatest curse. You are correct that the sport needs to do more to attract the swing voters, as you call them. But I believe I am also correct in estimating that most of the fans who attend NHL games are of the die-hard variety and, thus, that attendance will be just fine no matter what.

As for the effect of the lockout on TV ratings ... well, what is zero from zero?

Q: Dejan, you've said numerous times that hockey teams rely much more on ticket revenue than those in the other three sports. I'm sure that's true.

Still, I don't see how that can account for the revenue disparity between big and small markets. After all, a sold-out arena in Buffalo or Minnesota should produce about the same amount of revenue as in New York or Philadelphia, assuming the same amount of income-producing amenities.

Since there is little national TV revenue, and that is equally divided, that must leave local TV money to account for the difference. We often see comparisons of the Pirates' TV money to that of the Yankees, Braves and others. But I've never seen one involving the Penguins. Are these figures available?

Norman Cox of Indianapolis

KOVACEVIC: No, they are not available, Norman. The teams, all of them private entities, have no obligation to publicize such information. As a result, no such survey exists, at least not one that I have seen.

I can tell you this, though, and it might surprise you: The Penguins believe that their local television contract with Fox Sports Net is a very good one for their sport, particularly given that they are not among the top half in the NHL in TV market size. It also is a long-term deal, which strengthens the franchise's future foundation.

Now, why, given this, are the Penguins considered a low-revenue team? They will point -- as they do in virtually every situation related to economics -- to the arena.

Your point about venue revenue in Buffalo and Minnesota comparing to New York and Philadelphia is not accurate, at least not in the sense that all four should produce the same. Very different prices can be charged in those markets and arenas, depending on consumers' ability or willingness to pay. If demand generally is low, as it has been in Buffalo most of the past three years, the prices go down. That means that a sellout at HSBC does not bring nearly as much as one in Minnesota, where demand is extraordinary, or New York, where the market allows for very high prices even in an old building.

The Penguins, most evidence shows, have both issues working against them.

The Pittsburgh market is no larger than 3 million, even if you cast a wide net and include perimeter places such as Wheeling and Youngstown that the hockey team still targets. That is not the type of density that allows for the consumer crush that comes so naturally in high-population centers such as New York or Philadelphia. Nor does it allow the team to charge comparable dollars.

Also, the arena is, beyond dispute, the oldest in the league and does not have the amenities of the newer ones. The deficiency that the Penguins feel is the most crippling is the location of the luxury suites, stuck high on stilts above even the D level. Suites in new arenas usually ring an area comparable to right behind the B level at the Arena. They are much, much closer to the action and, as a result, much easier to sell.

Making the latter that much more difficult to sell, Penguins officials maintain, is that they compete directly against the Steelers and Pirates for corporate clients to buy these suites. Anyone who has seen the suites at PNC Park or Heinz Field -- I have seen both, and they are phenomenal -- can attest that they dwarf what the Penguins are trying to sell at the Arena. There are not many areas in which the Penguins must compete directly with the other two teams in town, but the selling of suites is right at the top of the list. There is only so far the local corporate dollar can be stretched.

Anyway, back to the point of your question: The Penguins have expressed nothing but great satisfaction with their TV deal. It is other areas that concern them.

Q: Dejan, regarding a question submitted last week about bringing in all new players, part of your reply was: "Would you pay $30 a ticket to watch the Nailers in an 18,000-seat arena?"

You have mentioned in the past that minor-league hockey is exciting to watch and that the fan base and atmosphere at those arenas are great. Maybe bringing in all new players would make it easier to change some of the rules of NHL hockey to make it more exciting to watch. Maybe the talent level wouldn't be there for a while, but at least every team would have a legitimate chance for the Stanley Cup.

I, for one, would rather pay $30 a ticket to watch the Pens in Pittsburgh. After all, the Pens weren't great this year, but many of us still went to the games.

Michael Meseck of McMurray

KOVACEVIC: Honestly, Michael, I see the replacement-player scenario as being so far out there that I really am reluctant to waste any energy thinking about it.

My point, as I wrote last week, was that I am very skeptical that people would pay NHL prices to watch second- or third-tier professional hockey over any sustained period of time. I also am very skeptical that, even if prices were reduced, crowds of 18,000 could be coaxed to watch it. Not even in Montreal. Or, maybe, especially not in Montreal, where the fans know their hockey as well as anyone and doubtless would be put off by the product.

As I just said, I do not see this stuff ever reaching fruition. So many hurdles would have to be climbed by the owners to declare an impasse, have it supported by judges in the U.S. as well as the individual provinces in Canada, then bust up a union or two (assuming they would want AHL players to cross the line, too), then hope that fans will give up their dollars for an inferior product. It just does not seem realistic, and I strongly suspect that even the idea being floated -- as it was by the Atlanta Thrashers owner who was fined this week -- is part of the rhetoric.

Q: From your Tuesday article on the great Dick Tarnstrom:

"Jacks called me up the other day and said he doesn't know what to do, that he's going to the box for everything he does," Tarnstrom said.

Clearly, the Ric Jackman nickname search is over. The great Dick Tarnstrom has intervened and has chosen "Jacks."

Kris Weinhold of Columbia, Md.

KOVACEVIC: Actually, Tarnstrom can claim no credit for that. Nor will he be able to apply for rights fees when Jackman signs his big Nike deal someday. Jackman has been going by this almost since the day he arrived in Pittsburgh.

But, really now, is something as generic as "Jacks" acceptable, anyway? Seemingly every hockey player in the NHL gets stuck with a similar type of nickname, where a part of their name is taken out, and an "s" or a "y" is added. For every unusual nickname such as "Moose," "Trout" or "Bugsy," there are a dozen such as "Koltsy." The standards need to be set a little higher.

As always, though, I want no part of this. In fact, I would rather answer the next question 20 times a week than field another batch of Jackman nicknames ...

Q: If the lockout lasts all the season, will there be a draft? And then, the Penguins will have the benefit to pick the next great one or the next magnificent one, Sidney Crosby?

Sylvain Rheaume of Quebec

KOVACEVIC: You know, this was the first week in a while that I received no links to Crosby-in-a-Pittsburgh-sweater fake photos. One reader sent in a jpeg, but those are not something I can open or publish.

Perhaps I ended up with something better.

A brief chat yesterday with one of Crosby's representatives indicated that Crosby, too, is thinking about the draft issue but, of course, has no answers. The representative also mentioned to me that Crosby likes the idea of joining the Penguins, while acknowledging, naturally, that he will have no say in the matter. Finally, I was told that Crosby is healed from a recent knee injury -- the result of a "cheap shot," the representative said -- and ready to resume tearing up the QMJHL.

Q: Hello, Dejan. What are your feelings as far any momentum the team might have had from its inspiring finish last year? Specifically, is it safe to assume that the lockout, regardless how long it lasts, will negate the momentum the team might have had? It would be a shame to have the spirit of that last game -- specifically, the postgame activities -- burn out over the course of a prolonged work stoppage.

Darek Heier of Waldorf, Md.

KOVACEVIC: Actually, Darek, Tarnstrom brought up that subject in our conversation the other day.

He is of the mind that the momentum will not fade so long as there is hockey at some point in what was supposed to be the 2004-05 season. He said that the confidence the players picked up in that stretch came over such a long period -- a quarter of the season -- and from so many different players that it is something he expects will carry over. He also pointed to the signing of Mark Recchi as a positive, in more ways than one, adding that he was eager to see who might be next.

My own feeling is that momentum does not carry over from season to season, especially when circumstances change.

If or when the Penguins resume playing, they will not be just playing out a string and trying to surprise teams. Nor will they have a schedule that was as soft as that one was, for most of those 20 games. They will be playing games that count -- as do all games for all teams at the outset of a season -- and they will be facing all kinds of opponents, many of whom will have more talent.

Also, as I have written many times, one of the team's greatest strengths -- its power play that was the NHL's best in the second half of the season -- will undergo a significant change just because of the additions of Lemieux and Recchi. No longer will the team be simply crashing the net and waiting for Tarnstrom or Jackman to fire the puck. There will be more east-west, more give-and-goes. It might very well be a very good power play, too. But the chances of it being No. 1? Well, that is something no team should expect.

Finally, there is the goaltending, by far the team's greatest variable. It will have two youngsters, no matter who among Marc-Andre Fleury, Sebastien Caron or Andy Chiodo makes the final cut. Some nights, they will be good. Others, they will not. But to expect them to be consistent at that age is going against pretty much everything we know about NHL goaltending.

Q: Dear Dejan, I saw in today's PG that you had a phone interview with the great Dick Tarnstrom from Sweden. I was curious: How would you set that up? Do you simply call the Penguins front office? Or do you have a Rolodex with a bunch of agents' names and numbers, and it might take you a couple calls to find Tarnstrom's agent? Or do you speak with Mr. Tarnstrom himself to set up the details?

Steven J. Gruber of Glenshaw

KOVACEVIC: Before players leave at the end of the season, reporters routinely get contact information for every player on the team. It is up to the player if he wishes to give out the information, but they almost always do.

Hockey players, including "Mr. Tarnstrom," tend to be good like that.

Q: I read that Fox Sports Net is going to show classic Penguins games, and it got me wondering if any company still sells complete Penguins games on DVD or VHS. Do you or anyone reading the Q&A know of such a company?

Michael Goldberg of Annapolis, Md.

KOVACEVIC: I get this question quite a bit, more recently than usual because of the lockout, I guess.

No, there is no active company that produces or reproduces old Penguins videos. The company that made the best-known videos from the Stanley Cup years no longer exists.

In addition to the games Fox is showing, though, the Penguins also plan to give away DVDs of certain memorable games as promotional items at Mellon Arena if and when the season ever gets going.

Q: Regarding the "Penguins In Exile" stats from the Tuesday paper, would you care to comment on Sebastien Caron? Did he actually play seven games, as I'm led to believe, and come out with a 6.53 GAA? Is this a no-defenseman league? What gives?

Chuck Schneider of Greenfield

KOVACEVIC: According to a newspaper clipping emailed to me from old friend Gilles Gauvin in Quebec, Caron is facing 70-80 shots a game. Under the circumstances, his .876 save percentage that did not make it into the graphic you cite actually is not too bad, Chuck.

Take all of those stats with a grain of salt, incidentally. Jackman, for example, is playing Tier 2 in Sweden, making him a virtual lock to put up Bobby Orr numbers, as he already has apparently started to do. These leagues are very different in terms of their quality in many cases, and a goal in Slovakia should not be given the same weight as one in Russia, where scoring is much harder to do.

Q: So, the hospital site is no longer for sale. I see this as a positive for the team and its future here. Is this the team trying to prepare the best proposal for the gaming board? I assume the proposal's attractiveness increases with the arena being built on the site. Would there be any other reason for the team to take the site off the market?

Julius Ecker of Cheswick

KOVACEVIC: There is no other reason the site was taken off the market, Julius. It will be part of the Penguins' slots proposal, as will the current land upon which Mellon Arena sits, even though it is the Urban Redevelopment Authority rather than the team which owns that much larger and much more important parcel.

If I had to guess -- and this is only a guess -- I would expect that the hospital building could function at least temporarily as a site for slots until a permanent and infinitely more lavish casino could be built. Any operator who gets a slots license wants to make sure they have their machines up and running as quickly as possible, for every day those arms are not being pulled is another day of massive revenue lost. Given that Mellon Arena doubtless would need to be razed in any plan, the hospital building would be the only existing structure on the site that could be used this way.

Q: Dejan; do you know where Ondrej Nemec is playing this year? I did not see him on the Wilkes-Barre/Scranton roster.

Chris Esposito of Oxford, N.J.

KOVACEVIC: Nemec is with Vsetin of the Czech Republic's Extraliga. He has a goal and a minus-4 rating in nine games.

Remember that Nemec has yet to sign a contract with the Penguins. When he played in the AHL for the playoffs this past spring, he did so on an amateur tryout contract.

In closing ...

This installment of the Q&A kicks off the fifth year of a feature I predicted to myself would last no more than a month when the boss assigned it to me. I was wrong, of course, as I have been many, many times since. The reader response, strong from the outset, has multiplied many times over, in quantity and quality.

Until next week, by which time I will have covered an actual sporting event competed on ice at Mellon Arena. No kidding ...

First published on October 15, 2004 at 12:00 am