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Specter holds big lead over Hoeffel
Pennsylvania Poll shows incumbent with 53-31 edge in U.S. Senate race
Saturday, October 02, 2004

With just over a month until the Nov. 2 election, U.S. Sen. Arlen Specter, R-Pa., held a commanding lead over his challenger, U.S. Rep. Joseph Hoeffel, in his bid for a record fifth term.

The veteran Republican had the support of 53 percent of the likely voters interviewed in a Pennsylvania Poll this week; Hoeffel was far back with 31 percent. Sixteen percent of the voters were undecided.

Specter led in every region of the state. He scored far ahead of his rival with both male and female voters, although his advantage among men -- 57 percent to 29 percent -- was slightly stronger than among women, 49 percent to 33 percent.

After barely surviving a bruising primary against U.S. Rep. Pat Toomey, Specter still rated favorably with a majority of the voters surveyed. Fifty-one percent said they had a favorable view, 21 percent said they held an unfavorable view and 26 percent said they were neutral.

After 23 years in office, the Republican is well-known -- only 2 percent of those questioned didn't recognize his name. Hoeffel, meanwhile, was unknown to nearly one voter in five.

Twenty-nine percent of respondents said they had a favorable view of the Democrat. Fourteen percent had an unfavorable view and 39 percent said they felt neutral.

If the numbers held any consolation for Hoeffel, a Montgomery County congressman, it was that his relative anonymity suggested room for growth in a race still marked by a fairly high proportion of undecided voters.

Specter's narrow victory in the primary suggested that he was a polarizing figure among members of his own party. The poll results, however, indicate that he has recovered from much of the damage. He was supported by 72 percent of the Republican voters surveyed, a level of support only slightly below that of President Bush, who had the backing of 80 percent of Republicans questioned in the same poll.

Specter ran significantly ahead of the president among both independents and Democrats. Only 14 percent of Pennsylvania Democrats said they planned to vote to re-elect Bush, while 37 percent said they would back Specter. Forty-eight percent said they planned to vote for their party's Senate nominee.

The survey raised the prospect of a significant level of ticket-splitting next month. Specter had significant leads over his chief challenger in the Pittsburgh and Philadelphia metropolitan areas, two regions in which Sen. John Kerry led Bush.

In the Pittsburgh region, Specter led 45 percent to 37 percent, with 18 percent undecided. In Philadelphia and its suburbs, the political base of both candidates, Specter led 48 percent to 39 percent, with 13 percent undecided.

The Pennsylvania Poll was conducted for the Pittsburgh Post-Gazette by Mason-Dixon Polling and Research of Washington, D.C. A total of 625 registered voters who said they were likely to go to the polls next month were interviewed by telephone on Sept. 27 and 28. The poll's theoretical margin of error was plus or minus 4 percentage points.

First published on October 2, 2004 at 12:00 am
Politics Editor James O'Toole can be reached at jotoole@post-gazette.com or 412-263-1562.
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