On the eve of the first presidential debate, the race for Pennsylvania's electoral votes was a virtual dead heat.

	Online Graphic: Presidential poll See a graphic that shows polling information for Pennsylvania voters.

A new Pennsylvania Poll found U.S. Sen. John Kerry with a statistically insignificant lead over President Bush of 45 percent to 44 percent among likely voters in the state.

The slender difference was well within the survey's margin of error of plus or minus 4 percent.

Independent Ralph Nader, whose right to a spot on the Pennsylvania ballot is being challenged in court, trailed with 2 percent while 9 percent of the voters surveyed said they were undecided.

The findings followed the familiar patterns of state politics. Kerry led in the Pittsburgh and Philadelphia metropolitan areas while Bush was ahead in the center of the state.

The most closely contested region was the northeast, including traditionally Democratic but culturally conservative communities in the Scranton and Wilkes-Barre area, where Bush was ahead by 45 percent to 43 percent.

Reflecting the close battle over that region, both Bush and Kerry chose Scranton as their first campaign stops at the close of their conventions.

Bush led in the center of the state by a margin of nearly 2-to-1. Kerry was ahead in the southeast corner of the state, 54 percent to 34 percent, and in the southwest, including Allegheny County, 50 percent to 41 percent.

Following another pattern of recent elections, the Republican did better among men while the Democrat did better with women.

Bush led Kerry, 49 percent to 43 percent, with 9 percent undecided, among male voters, while Kerry led among women, 47 percent to 39 percent with 12 percent undecided.

By a slight margin, Bush had a stronger hold on his partisan base than Kerry, but Kerry led, albeit within the margin of error, among independents. Among Democrats, it was Kerry, 75 percent, Bush 14 percent; for Republicans, it was Bush, 80 percent, Kerry, 11 percent; and among independents, Kerry, 44 percent, and Bush 41 percent.

After weeks in which both candidates have been assailed in increasingly negative advertising, those with favorable views of each candidate outnumbered those with unfavorable opinions by only narrow pluralities.

Forty-three percent of those interviewed said they had a favorable view of Bush, and 40 percent said the same of Kerry. Thirty-nine percent had an unfavorable view of Bush and 37 percent of Kerry.

The survey was conducted for the Pittsburgh Post-Gazette by Mason-Dixon Polling and Research, of Washington, D.C. It was based on telephone interviews conducted Sept. 27 and 28 with 625 registered voters who said they planned to vote in the November election.

The margin of error, in 19 of 20 cases, would be expected to be plus or minus 4 percentage points. The margins of error are greater for smaller groups within the overall sample, such as votes by region or party.

The results were consistent with several other surveys of the state in the past two weeks, all of which showed Kerry with a thin lead. Through most of the spring and summer, the Democrat had registered somewhat larger leads in most surveys of Pennsylvania voters. After the Republican convention at the beginning of the month, however, Bush narrowly edged Kerry in a variety of polls of the state.

In the past week, a poll conducted by Quinnipiac University and completed on Sept. 26 depicted Kerry with a lead of 49 percent to 46 percent. A Philadelphia Inquirer/Temple University survey completed on Sept. 24 showed Kerry with 49 percent and Bush with 47 percent.

Four years ago, Bush lost Pennsylvania to former Vice President Al Gore by more than 200,000 votes, or about 5 percent of the total cast. Since then, he has worked ardently to reverse that result. Since he was elected, Bush has made 37 trips to the state, more than any other except to his Texas home.

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