Penguins Q&A with Dejan Kovacevic

Friday, September 03, 2004

Before we open this week ...

Easily the most rewarding aspect of this weekly forum is the way it has connected me to readers far and wide, whether from just across the river or all the way across the ocean or even on the battlefields in Baghdad.

A little while back, Ian DeArdo, a regular contributor from London, read that I would be stopping through his city on the way to and from Athens, and he offered to take me around for a day. I had stopped in London's two airports many times in life in transit to other parts of the world but have never seen the place, so I enthusiastically accepted.

Ian generously forfeited an entire day to take me everywhere from the Tower of London to the nearby Tower Bridge to Big Ben to Westminster Abbey to pretty much everywhere someone could hope to cover in the span of six hours. And it was remarkable, the tour and the sights. I realize this is like saying the Beatles wrote a couple of decent tunes, but London is truly one of the world's great cities.

All I had to offer back to Ian was some hockey talk over coffee, but I promise to do better the next time he returns home, as he is a Mt. Lebanon product and a Pittsburgh guy all the way through.

Q: Dejan, I'm completely disgusted, frustrated and steamed at the NHLPA for its unwillingness to negotiate in the CBA meetings. I would love to personally talk to Ted Saskin and remind him that, if not for the fans, his players wouldn't have a dime. It's about time he realizes that the status quo is not good for the owners, players or fans in the long run. As a paying fan, I demand answers, but I don't know how to get them. Do you know how we, the fans of the game, can be heard in these CBA negotiations? And do you know of any good remedies for lowering my blood pressure because, right now, I'm boiling!

Bob Anderson of Du Bois

KOVACEVIC: I wish you had been clearer, Bob, about why you are focusing your anger solely on the PA. That might have allowed me to come up with a better answer.

In the meantime, the best remedy I can suggest to calm you is to look at both sides of the issue.

As an ardent, knowledgeable fan of the sport, you are plenty entitled to finger whichever side you wish. But the tone of your submission sure makes it sound as if you feel the owners are trying their very best to put real proposals on the table, only to have them rejected by the greedy union. At this point in time, I do not feel that describes the picture accurately.

I keep going back to this, but the players' first and only offer that was made last October called for the following:

A luxury tax system that penalizes teams spending $45 million or more. Teams would have to pay $1 of tax for ever $1 they spend over the limit.

A 5 percent giveback on all existing contracts.

Revenue sharing among owners, to be determined by owners.

Is that perfect? Absolutely not.

Should it have been rejected by the owners?

Given the state of the sport and its national television contracts, yes.

But could it have functioned as a reasonable starting point?

I believe it could have.

Take that luxury tax ceiling, then drop it to, say, $35 million. Next, make the penalty for exceeding it $3 for every dollar over the limit.

That would mean that, if the Rangers were to desire a payroll of $60 million, they actually would have to pay out $135 million in cash. And the majority of that cash would go toward helping to fund the teams with whom they are trying to compete.

A deterrent? I sure think so.

Now, look at it from the Penguins' standpoint.

Two years ago, when their situation was pretty much the norm in Pittsburgh, their payroll was in the range of $32 million. This is averaging crowds of about 15,000 and playing in an arena that they feel is inadequate for the purpose of maximizing revenues. That means that, to reach the luxury tax limit, they would have to spend only $3 million more than they do under normal conditions in a 43-year-old building.

Add into the equation the money they would receive from teams that do go over the limit -- you just know that eight or 10 of them will -- and then the element of a new, modern arena, and one could easily project that the Penguins would be not only healthy but also competitive in such a setting.

I see no reason that the same should not also be true of Ottawa, Calgary, Edmonton, Nashville and Carolina, so long as they behave responsibly.

Look, I realize I am oversimplifying this, but this is only an example of why I feel that the one great stumbling block in these negotiations is not all that insurmountable. The players already offered a significant step toward concession, one that symbolically was a gesture of understanding that salary restrictions of some kind are in order. The owners threw it back in their faces, and then Gary Bettman declared that any luxury-tax system would not be acceptable.

This could change, but I see the owners rather than the players as being the ones most looking forward to a lockout.

Q: Dejan, I just finished reading the article in today's paper about Evgeni Malkin's team trying to offer him a larger contract to stay in Russia for at least the next four years. I can't say that I can recall a time where another league has offered contracts of the size that a No. 1 or 2 draft pick would expect to receive in the NHL. Is this something the Pens and fans should be concerned about, or is it simply a way for his agent to try to get bigger numbers onto Malkin's eventual contract with the Pens? This also started me wondering about the new CBA and whether or not the European leagues really would start paying their players enough to pull them away from the NHL. Would this be a card that the NHLPA tries to play in the negotiations? Hope you had a good time at the Olympics ... back to Pittsburgh gyros.

Brian Zigmond of Newark, Del.

KOVACEVIC: No gyros anywhere for quite a long time, Brian.

There is more money backing a couple of the teams in Russia than at any point previously, which is why you see wallets being opened there. There also is more money being paid out than before in Switzerland, Germany, the Czech Republic, Sweden and Finland.

Still, I find it difficult to believe that we will see for a very, very long time leagues that could challenge the NHL pay scale.

Arenas in Europe tend to seat only 10,000 at their largest, and even those are only in the biggest cities. That tends to leave one city -- Prague, Helsinki, for example -- dominant within its national league. That makes for little revenue or interest generated in the smaller cities, which makes for not much of an overall pool of money.

Now, if Europe were to produce a true, NHL-style professional league in which the powers such as Jokerit, Sparta and others all competed in a full regular-season schedule with a unified championship, more money through attendance, television revenue and sponsorships (hey, someone has to buy all those ads on the sweaters), and a challenge could be mounted.

But, as Ian was describing to me in great detail the other day, it is difficult to get Europeans to coordinate much of anything because of their distinct histories and cultures. Even the currency, the Euro, is shunned in Great Britain in favor of the national pound.

As for the PA trying to play this in negotiations: I can see where players see it as an option for what to do next season, but I cannot see how this would factor into discussions about a new Collective Bargaining Agreement. The PA needs for there to be an NHL in order to make money for its membership.

Q: Dejan, do you think the braintrust of USA Hockey are rethinking bringing so many 35-year-olds when they were being skated around like they were 55 by the Russians? I think a couple of young players, like Ryan Malone or Brooks Orpik, could've help this USA team. I give the Russians and the Canadians credit for infusing youth on to their teams. The Russians have a ton of skill, and were passing like the old Red Army teams.

Matt Bachovchin of Naperville, Ill.

KOVACEVIC: I wrote in this space the Friday after the U.S. roster was announced earlier this year that it looked like a big mistake. Nothing that has happened in the tournament so far has prompted me to alter that thinking in the slightest.

I am not sure Malone and/or Orpik specifically would make a difference. Bear in mind that Malone did not perform all that well at the World Championships, by most accounts, and that Orpik was left off that roster entirely.

But it is looking as if the USA Hockey is about to be splashed with a necessary dose of cold water that it is time to let 1996 go and move on.

As for the way Russia is playing ... well, my primary thought about their performance last night was that my VCR is worn down from rewinding and replaying Alexei Kovalev's positively ridiculous goal so many times. If he is playing anywhere near that level for the rest of this tournament, it will not matter how many chances Maxim Afinogenov wastes.

Q: Dejan, hope you are happily and settled back in at home after your Olympics assignment. Thursday morning, I read Dave Molinari's article that said, "Lemieux said that simply having a new building would not necessarily be enough to keep the franchise in Pittsburgh if the slots license is awarded to another party." Those last nine words made my jaw drop. Six months ago, the talk was Penguins would be happy as a clam to accept slots-related money toward building a new arena from another prospective slots license applicant. This sounds like a whole new song the Pens are singing, not just a change in key. I'm definitely in favor of the Pens getting the slots license. But this sounds like a borderline threat. Did I miss something in the last few months? What has changed that makes an arena not enough?

Gerry Mangold of Richmond, Va.

KOVACEVIC: This was the quote from Lemieux on the subject of whether or not the team would accept a situation in which someone else won the license but was required to build the arena: "That's something we'd have to look at. I'd think that, at this stage, we'd need a little bit more than just a new arena for us to make it work."

Obviously, the quote is open to interpretation.

It could mean nothing more than that, as the Penguins have maintained for months, they not only want a new arena but also want control of its operations and revenues, same as the Steelers and Pirates have.

It could also mean that, in addition to the arena, they want the millions of extra dollars in slots revenue and are not willing to give the Gaming Control Board an easy out to giving the license to someone else when they feel they can have it for themselves.

That said, Gerry, I share your apparent sentiment that Lemieux and the Penguins would look awfully bad -- worse, actually -- in turning down a new arena simply because it did not come with an accompanying casino.

Q: In the Q&A last week, you mentioned teams that have taken a step back during this off-season, specifically Boston, in response to a submission about the Pens' playoff chances. I've been bringing this up when preaching to my pessimistic hockey-minded friends. I look around the league and see Boston self destructing, Toronto getting older by the day, Philly losing Mark Recchi, Alexei Zhamnov and Vladimir Malakhov and considering buying out Tony Amonte and John LeClair. Carolina is a long way from a playoff spot, and Florida has yet to really make a move to improve itself. Both the Rangers and Capitals are at least a year or two behind the Penguins in rebuilding, and Ottawa is handing its team over to 39-year-old Dominik Hasek. What's to stop a quick, aggressive team like the Pens from sneaking into the playoffs?

Brandon Kline of Murrysville

KOVACEVIC: One excellent point that Ian made in my visit with him was how immense the historical factor must be working against the Penguins making the playoffs next season, based solely on how difficult it must be for a team that finishes last overall to reach the postseason immediately after that.

I agreed with him.

Funny thing is, we were both wrong.

Based on research Ian did after our meeting that he emailed to me, the 2000-01 Islanders, who finished last in the league, were in the playoffs the next season. Same with the 1996-97 Bruins, the 1996-96 Senators, 1992-93 Sharks and the 1987-88 North Stars.

However, there also were six cases in the past 15 years where the team that finished last turned in the exact same finish the following season.

Ian attached the following note to his research: "There does seem to be a pattern. Teams that finish badly several years in a row get better gradually and then seem to have a big jump as the good draft picks enter the team and the younger players gain experience. The Isles in 2001 are fairly unique in the fact that they made a huge jump of 44 points. They had some financial stability and were able to bring in Alexei Yashin and Michael Peca, among others. Perhaps the impact of the new CBA will do the same to the Pens? Personally, I doubt it."

Q: I know it has previously been answered that, in the absence of a season this year, players will not receive pay. But will this lack of a season count as a year on the contracts? Would a current three-year contract still be three, or would it shrink to two years?

Jacqueline Gattuso of Mt. Lebanon

KOVACEVIC: I think I have tried to answer this one before, but I still get questions about this, so I will try a different way:

Every NHL player's contract is structured by specific seasons, rather than a vague time limit.

For example, let us say that Alex Goligoski just signed a three-year contract with the locals. (He did not, but stick with me.) Then, let us say that it is broken down like this:

2004-05: $900,000

2005-06: $1 million

2006-07: $1.1 million

If there is no 2004-05 season, then that $900,000 is lost forever. And Goligoski is left with a two-year contract that starts with the terms of his 2005-06 pay.

This is the reason, by the way, that the Penguins agreed to pick up a large portion of the second year of Martin Straka's contract -- but none in the first -- when they made the trade with Los Angeles. If there is no season, they will not have had to pay Straka a penny for playing for the Kings.

Q: After reading the Q&A, I am left with a question: Why are so many people so convinced the loss of Aleksey Morozov will hurt this team? The Penguins replaced him with Recchi, a huge upgrade.

Michael Litzenberger of Reading

KOVACEVIC: It is almost always the way in sports that our memories are short-term. We do not recall the Morozov who was squeezing his stick to sawdust nearly as well as we recall the one who was going to the net and scoring all those clutch goals in the final two months. That is human nature.

Is Recchi an upgrade? Sure.

But Morozov is a loss to the Penguins so long as the Penguins will need four right wingers next season rather than one, which I expect that they will.

Let me ask: Who is your second-line right winger right now?

If you have to think about it for even a moment, that answers your question.

Morozov would have provided a legitimate scoring presence on the second line, somewhat to keep teams at least a little honest about how they defend the Penguins. He also would have provided insurance should any of the first-liners or top power-play guys go down with injury, another virtual guarantee.

Most important, I believe, he might finally have sustained one of his maddening streaks and blossomed into something special.

To my eyes, the biggest difference between the Morozov of the last two months of last season and the Morozov who would score goals in spurts before that was that he was going to the net.

Eddie Olczyk gets all of the credit for that. He rode Morozov interminably, starting in training camp, about going to the net. There were times he seemed tempted to chain him to the cross bar. It did not work right away, obviously, but maybe it took another one of those classic Morozov slumps to convince him that the coach might be on to something. Then, when he pocketed his first Doug Shedden goal, they started coming in bunches. Suddenly, you had him charging the net as never before, even when he was not scoring.

He was a different player altogether, not just one who was getting goals.

Now, what will happen to him in Russia?

Most likely, he will take advantage of the bigger rinks and softer opponents, hang out on the perimeter, not have anyone push him to improve, score a few pretty goals on long-range wrist shots ... and regress.

Morozov not spending 2004-05 in Pittsburgh hurts the Penguins, and it hurts Morozov.

Q: Hi, Dejan. I think that by agreeing with those two gentlemen who had been critical of your shirt in their native tongue would have been something that even Miss Manners would have approved of.

Steven J. Gruber of Glenshaw

KOVACEVIC: Miss Manners most definitely would not have approved of the bulk of my behavior on this trip.

I left the shirt behind, by the way, so no one on our side of the planet will ever get to see it. I told Wife which one it was, and she heartily endorsed my decision to part with it.

Q: Dejan, I watched the Memorial Cup games in Kelowna this year and, in my humble opinion, Maxime Talbot was the best player in the tournament. Not only does he have plenty of offensive talent, but he also demonstrated a lot of heart, a will to win, and a great deal of leadership, looking like a man among boys and dominating the play on many shifts. My question is: What is the likelihood of Talbot cracking the big club this year?

Bob McAfee of Richmond, British Columbia

KOVACEVIC: The Penguins should hope that he does not make the big team.

If he does, it will mean they will have had several disappointments on the depth chart at forward, and that would override whatever positive could be derived from Talbot making it. When you look at the type of player Talbot is -- by his own description, he is much more grit than skill -- one would think the Penguins are hoping that someone such as Colby Armstrong makes it into the NHL fold before he does. Others rank on the depth chart ahead of him, too.

Also, if Talbot were to make it, it almost surely would be as a fourth-liner, which is not going to happen because it would stunt his development. He could not be asked to play on the third or checking line at the NHL level without ever having defended an opponent's forward at the professional level. He needs to learn that in the AHL, and that is where he most certainly will start out.

To his credit, Talbot is the first to talk about the need for seasoning. He is a very bright kid who, no matter how well he is doing in training camp or in juniors, has no problem identifying areas of his game he needs to strengthen or admitting same. Moreover, now matter how many points he gets in junior, he is emphatic in describing himself as a defense-first player, fully aware that is his ticket to the NHL. He might be underselling his skill -- people who watched him at Southpointe last September saw him make some very nice passes in traffic -- but at least he is not distorting it, which is worse.

I do share your view, Bob, that Talbot will play in the NHL. His future continually appears brighter.

Q: The NBA has 29 teams, plays 82 regular-season games over six months and has 16 playoff teams. The NHL does the same. Why is the NHL regular season considered a joke and yet there is nothing at all wrong with the NBA season? This always frustrates me. I would mention 162 regular-season baseball games, but they do have a small amount of playoff teams. I just don't understand why national media never makes a mockery of the NBA season but fall all over themselves to crack a joke about the NHL season at the mere mention of the sport.

Manny Wolfe of Springdale

KOVACEVIC: Honestly, Manny, I have heard the NHL and NBA lumped together on this count so many times that I find it difficult to respond.

To the bigger picture here, if you know something to be true, why would it get to you when you hear someone on television -- whether in Pittsburgh or elsewhere -- say it differently? Really, what is the difference?

I get so much mail from readers complaining about stuff that they hear on television or radio or newspapers that infuriates them, most of it at the national level. And, in most cases, the examples are like yours, Manny, in that you already know the facts and have your own clearly formed opinion on them.

Just change the channel or turn the page.

Q: Dejan, you might know how many Qs you get weekly. Could you give us a figure and also an average? What would interest me even more: How many hits does the Q&A page on the Web site register?

Steve Binder of Vienna, Austria

KOVACEVIC: The last survey I saw that broke down hits to our Web site was just about a year ago, Bob, so that is all I can go on.

It did not single out the Q&A specifically, but it did show some specifics, two of which I found quite interesting:

One is that visits to Penguins-related pages outdrew those to Pirates-related pages. Now, this was just barely, but it lends credence to my long-standing view that the Penguins are the second-most popular team in town when it comes to intense interest in the franchise.

Second is that the Steelers are bigger than any of us can fathom. Roughly 40 percent of all visits to the site -- not just sports-related -- are directly to Steelers pages.

That is just mind-boggling.

Remember that the next time you complain about all the attention they receive from the various media. They are the absolute kings of everything in our region, and they deserve everything they get and possibly more.

As for how many questions come in, it depends on variables such as whether the NHL is in season, whether the team has done something to infuriate its fan base (waiving Rick Berry, signing Drake Berehowsky or drafting Alex Goligoski), and whether the hockey writer appears disinterested in the primary topic because he is off covering the Olympics.

In a normal week, about 200 questions come in. Of those, unfortunately, roughly a third are discarded without being read because they do not have full names. Or because they do not use the full and appropriate title with which to address Tarnstrom on the first reference.

In closing, I am taking the next few weeks off to reacquaint myself with my family, a soft bed and ice in my drinks. That means that my byline will not be in the newspaper for a while.

The Q&A, like a cockroach in nuclear winter, will march on, however. There figures to be no shortage of significant, hockey-related discussion to be had in the coming days and weeks.

Until next week, by which point I might be calling publicly for the dismissal of one Hardy Nilsson ...

First published on September 3, 2004 at 12:00 am