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Can Dems win on values?
Monday, July 26, 2004

BOSTON -- With President Bush convinced that his re-election depends on the ardent support of evangelical Christians, like himself, Democrats beginning their four-day convention in Boston are trying to figure out whether they have a problem with churchgoers.

A poll released yesterday by the National Annenberg Election Survey, a project of the Annenberg Public Policy Center at the University of Pennsylvania, suggests they do. But it also suggests the Democrat's presidential candidate, Sen. John F. Kerry, might do better with voters by emphasizing moral values, rather than religion per se.

The Annenberg poll found that Republicans have increased their support among white evangelicals and born-again Christians since 2000.

Interviews with 3,715 voters this month indicated 71 percent who identify themselves as white evangelicals or born-again Protestants view Bush favorably, while only 19 percent view him unfavorably, said Annenberg political director Adam Clymer. Four years ago, the figures were 63 percent favorable and 19 percent unfavorable.

Perhaps more important politically, 51 percent of evangelicals say they are firm Republicans, with only 22 percent identifying themselves as Democrats. Four years ago, only 43 percent said they were Republicans, while 24 percent claimed to be Democrats.

White Protestants who call themselves evangelicals or born-again Christians make up 26 percent of registered voters, a significant voting bloc.

Clymer said that on almost every question those who go to religious services at least once a week like Bush more than they like Kerry. Six of ten approve of the way Bush is handling his job as president, while only 37 percent disapprove. Of those who go to church less than once a week, 44 percent approve of Bush's job performance and 54 percent disapprove.

Even among African Americans, who gave Bush only 8 percent of their votes in 2000, regular church-goers like the president more than those who are not. Almost one of five blacks who go to church once a week like Bush personally.

Kerry, a Roman Catholic, has emphasized that his moral values are shaped by his religion, as opposed to highlighting his religious faith. Those values, he says, underlie his support for such policies as eventually making health insurance available to all Americans and working more closely with foreign governments against the threat of terrorism.

Bush more openly invokes his personal religious beliefs, and, Kerry says, defines his values as having more to do with divisive social questions, such as gay marriage, abortion or school prayer -- issues on which Kerry thinks government should tread lightly.

There is evidence that Kerry's message is beginning to resonate. The general public, as opposed to evangelicals, slightly favor Kerry when asked whether he or Bush more closely share their values. The figures were 43 percent and 41 percent, according to the Annenberg survey. One reason appears to be growing opposition to the war in Iraq; Annenberg registered 52 percent of Americans saying they oppose the war.

Polls show most Americans don't even know Kerry is Catholic. But among white Catholics, 47 percent say Kerry shares their values, while only 38 percent feel that way about Bush.

Terry McAuliffe, chairman of the Democratic National Committee, said Democrats will not target one religious group in the way the Bush campaign targets evangelicals, as attested to by Bush senior adviser Karl Rove. "We are America. Our goal is to reach out to all Americans," McAuliffe said.

Ann McFeatters can be reached at amcfeatters@nationalpress.com or 1-202-662-7071.



First published on July 26, 2004 at 12:00 am