Steve Czetli and I just published a book called "Outrageous Optimism." It's an anecdotal book mostly about starting companies and making them successful. But it's also about life and our attitude toward life. That's where the title comes in. So I was intrigued when I read this quote from Jeff Bezos, the founder of Amazon.com.
"I believe that optimism is an essential quality for doing anything hard -- entrepreneurial endeavors or anything else. That doesn't mean that you are blind or unrealistic (to the risks). It means that you keep focused on eliminating risks and modifying your strategy, until it is a strategy about which you can be genuinely optimistic."
That's really profound. And it's profound because I think he is defining the heart of successful entrepreneurship. If it can be said that there is one trick to being a successful entrepreneur, I would say he's hit upon it: continuously and intelligently reducing risks while keeping an eye on alternate ways to reach your goal. Given all those possibilities, those opportunities and the risks associated with them, you are always evaluating bang for the buck. How big is the risk for the potential reward? And how do you keep minimizing that risk?
I have always said I never started a company for money. And that's true. But money also is a start-up's most precious resource. If every day you make one dollar, you will never go bankrupt. You will always be in the game. And if you keep reducing the risk, and you keep watching for alternative strategies, you eventually will get to a point where your optimism isn't so outrageous. In fact, it seems quite within reach. That's when you raise the ante. I can't tell you how many companies I've talked to that went under trying to reach for the brass ring too soon. Obviously, that was rampant during the dot-com bubble.
Entrepreneurship is not trying to catch lightning in a bottle. That's called gambling. That's why you go to a casino. Entrepreneurship is a rational approach to the questions: What am I risking? What is the reward? Is there any way for me to reduce that risk? I've seen some companies build internal manufacturing facilities to produce their product before they really knew whether it would sell. I say pay twice as much per unit by outsourcing it until you know it will sell. And when you do, then set up your manufacturing facilities, because now you have every right to be optimistic.
I once talked to a software company that hired two low-compensated salesmen hoping that way it could reach twice as many prospects. But neither one could really sell. That's why they came so inexpensively and, in fact, were not worth the risk. They took the opening of one highly paid person who had a much better chance of actually closing deals.
My wife, Judy, doesn't have that risk/reward reflex. To help sell "Outrageous Optimism," she was talking to our fulfillment contractor, who suggested we print up 1,000 custom bookmarks. So she ordered them.
When I came home, Judy told me about the bookmarks. I asked, "What is the charge?" She said, "Oh, it's just a quarter each. We ordered a thousand, so that's $250."
"How many more books will we sell because we're dishing out $250?" I asked, "If we make five dollars a book, we have to sell 50 more books to pay for the bookmarks." I know the risk, but I'm not sure of the reward. In fact, I'm a little doubtful. I thought that was an unwarranted risk, so I wasn't too optimistic about it.
Whatever I do, I look at the known expenditure and ask what I might get in return and what are the chances of getting it? The bookmark printer is going to get to $250 and he knows exactly what his profit will be. So he can be optimistic. What am I getting in return? In this case, the amount of dollars involved is relatively small, but it is the principle that is important. It's amazing to me how many entrepreneurs go into business without asking themselves the kinds of questions that continually evaluate risk, until it becomes small enough to be genuinely optimistic.
I fully agree with Jeff Bezos that anything hard requires optimism. Starting a business is surrounded by so many land mines that I say it requires outrageous optimism. And what that means is more work going in, continuous analysis while you're growing your business, and a constant effort to reduce risk and to look at various strategies.