Outs are more valuable than bases. So don't bunt the runner over. Swing away.

That has been the reigning philosophy among stats geeks for decades. It is not Pirates Manager Lloyd McClendon's philosophy.

The Pirates are second in the league in sacrifice hits with 30. Pirates pitchers lead their peers with 17 successful bunts. Have those bunts helped or hurt the team?

They have helped the Pirates ground into the fewest double plays (27) in the league. And to his credit, McClendon has his pitchers bunt more often than his position players, unlike eight other NL managers.

McClendon now has the ideal hitter in the leadoff spot to follow all those pitchers' bunts: Jason Kendall. You want a guy who hits singles and lots of them. (Return on bunts had been abysmal when Tike Redman was at the top of the order as we'll see.)

All that said, overwhelming statistical evidence suggests that the out lost with a sacrifice bunt is not worth the base gained. James Click, a writer for Baseball Prospectus, showed that recently in a three-part series, "Taking One for the Team; When Does It Make Sense to Sacrifice?"

The central point is that expected runs decrease as outs increase. Last season, for instance, an average of 0.919 runs scored from situations when there was a runner on first and none out. Only 0.707 runs scored from situations when there was a runner on second and one out.

The more productive bunt is not in moving a runner from first to second with Out No. 1, but in moving a runner from second to third. Yet this is a bunt the Pirates have used only twice this season.

I e-mailed Click and asked him to crunch the Pirates' batting averages to see who should and shouldn't be bunting. His conclusions:

The Pirates should never use a position player to sacrifice a man from first to second, unless J.J. Davis continues to hit below .100. Then, he alone can do it.

Don't sacrifice a man from second to third with no outs early in the game unless your name is Davis, Redman or Chris Stynes.

Late in a close game, there are many situations where bunting a man from second to third with no outs makes sense.

Pirates pitchers aren't necessarily gaining any runs by sacrificing men from first to second. (Kip Wells has a higher slugging percentage this season than Kendall, Redman, Stynes, Davis or Abraham Nunez).

Tracking Pirates bunts this season, I discovered:

Fourteen times, Pirates have bunted with a man on first and none out. Just twice did the batter following the bunt drive the runner in. On four other occasions, a batter later in the inning drove in a run. They've never scored more than one run in any inning where the first out was given away with a bunt.

Ten times, Pirates pitches have bunted successfully with a runner on first and one out. The runner has never scored.

Twice, late in close games, the Pirates used a position player to bunt a man from second to third with the first out. He scored once (on a Kendall sacrifice fly).

Three times, Pirates have bunted with runners on first and second and none out. Only one of those six runners scored. The first time, the runner on third scored on a Redman ground out. The second time, a double play followed an intentional walk. The third time, the sacrifice failed when Wells bunted into a force play at third.

Once, the Pirates bunted with runners on first and second and one out. Ironically, that hideously low-percentage play worked better than any bunt this season, as two runners scored when Ryan Vogelsong's bunt was thrown away by the opposing pitcher trying to get the lead runner at third.

So 30 bunts led to 10 runs. Part of the blame goes to Redman. The batter following more than half the bunts, he has been only 2 for 16 with a walk and two RBIs. But the sacrifice is never a high-percentage play.

Still, Click says, some Pirates should bunt when a runner is on second with no outs. Davis, Stynes and Redman should do it no matter who bats behind them. If playing for a single run late, Kendall, Rob Mackowiak and Jose Castillo should bunt a runner from second to third, but only if a singles hitter is batting behind them.

Otherwise, sacrifice the sacrifice and swing.