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High oil prices might not stop production cutback
Wednesday, March 31, 2004

VIENNA, Austria -- The current high price of oil should not prevent OPEC from cutting its output target by 4 percent as planned, oil ministers said yesterday.

Those arguing for pressing foward with the cut claim the world market is awash with crude -- something that might surprise U.S. motorists paying record prices for gasoline.

Saudi Arabian oil minister Ali Naimi said the 11-member Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries should stick with its earlier decision to trim its output target by 1 million barrels per day starting tomorrow. Oil ministers from four other countries -- Venezuela, Libya, Algeria and Iran -- made similar arguments.

OPEC representatives were gathering in Vienna for informal talks on output policy before meeting formally today. OPEC supplies about a third of the world's oil. Its current output target is 24.5 million barrels per day.

No matter what it decides to do, OPEC faces an uncomfortable choice.

If the group follows through on its Feb. 10 agreement to cut its production target to 23.5 million barrels, it risks driving up crude prices toward the psychologically important threshold of $40 per barrel. That could damage the global economy and the long-term demand for oil.

However, if the group postpones its promised cut, it may hurt its credibility and oversupply the market just as demand starts to slow in the second quarter. The result could be "a precipitous fall" in prices that everyone in OPEC wants to avoid, Waterlow said.

Prices are already uncomfortably high for importers and consumers. U.S. light, sweet crude reached a 13-year peak of $38.35 per barrel on March 17. U.S. crude futures for May delivery were trading yesterday at $36.30 per barrel, up 85 cents, in New York. In London, May contracts of North Sea Brent gained 71 cents to settle at $32.45 per barrel.

First published on March 31, 2004 at 12:00 am
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