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Campaign 2004: Kerry ready to put Edwards away on Super Tuesday
Monday, March 01, 2004

Sen. John F. Kerry of Massachusetts could seal the Democratic deal tomorrow as 10 states choose more than half the delegates needed to win the party's presidential nomination in Boston this summer.

 
 
 
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Kerry, the winner of 18 of 20 Democratic contests so far, is the strong favorite in most of them. As the hours before the balloting dwindled to double digits, Sen. John Edwards of North Carolina groped to find some brake for the front-runner's momentum.

A strong showing at least somewhere among the 10 states could allow Edwards to sustain his credibility as a realistic rival to Kerry and along with his hopes of changing the dynamics of the race in a round of Southern primaries the following Tuesday, March 9.

On the stump and in one final debate over the weekend, Edwards sought to distinguish himself from Kerry on trade, while Kerry continued to insist that there was no substantive difference in their positions on the increasingly prominent issue.

Speaking in a Cleveland church Saturday night, Edwards promised to battle the exporting of American jobs.

"We need a president who will look at our tax code and ask a basic question: 'Why are we rewarding companies that take out jobs away?','' Edwards told the crowd at the Mount Sinai Baptist Church, "This is common sense and it doesn't add up.''

During yesterday's debate, Edwards again portrayed himself as a better candidate to protect American jobs from foreign competition.

Polls suggested that many Democratic voters were accepting Kerry's claims on the trade issue and on the overall nomination battle.

Richard Simone, is the business agent for Local 527 of the Sheet Metal Workers Union in Syracuse, N.Y. In an interview last week, he noted that his local, which represents workers at Carrier Air Conditioning, was losing 1,100 of its 1,400 jobs to foreign competition. He said that trade is an issue that clearly resonates with his members but added, speaking of Kerry and Edwards, "Both are viable candidates; both have said the right things about trade.''

The national leaders of the Sheet Metal Workers have endorsed Kerry. Simone estimated that the registered Democrats among his members would split 60-40 for Kerry over Edwards tomorrow.

"We like both candidates; we hope that either one would beat Bush,'' the union official said last week.

Upstate New York is one of the select regions among tomorrow's far-flung contests where Edwards has concentrated his campaigning and spent money on television advertising, in part because of the job losses at manufacturers such as Carrier. He was scheduled to campaign there again after yesterday's debate.

He could pick up some delegates from congressional districts bordering the Great Lakes. But the majority of New York's Democrats live in the southern part of the state, in New York City and its suburbs, and Edwards appears to have no chance of winning the state overall. A poll released over the weekend by the American Research Group, showed Kerry with an overwhelming lead of 54 percent to 21 percent over Edwards.

Kerry's advantage is similarly daunting in tomorrow's other major prize, California. Beyond the two largest states in contention, Edwards has effectively conceded four New England states from Kerry's backyard -- Massachusetts, Connecticut, Rhode Island and Vermont.

That leaves Georgia and Ohio as the two largest contests where Edwards may hope for a breakthrough. But in each of them, as in every other state where ballots will be cast tomorrow, every published poll, along with the lion's share of endorsements, has been running in Kerry's direction. Ballots will also be cast tomorrow in Maryland and in Minnesota, which is the only state holding caucuses rather than a straight primary election.

According to a survey conducted by Mason-Dixon Polling and Research, Kerry had an overwhelming lead in Maryland, running more than 3-to-1 -- 62 percent to 20 percent -- ahead of his North Carolina rival. Minnesota's caucuses, which are open to any registered voters, were one of the areas in which Edwards was hoping to benefit from appeals to orphaned Howard B. Dean supporters. On Saturday, Edwards wooed one-time organizers for the former Vermont governor in a conference call with participants from across the country.

After a post-debate rally in Albany, N.Y., Edward was scheduled to spend last night in Toledo, Ohio, on the eve of a final day of campaigning that would take him through the Buckeye state and on to Georgia. Edwards has invested hope and campaign resources in Ohio on the theory that its significant losses in manufacturing jobs over the last few years will make it hospitable to his tough-on-trade message.

Kerry derided the North Carolinian's new emphasis on that subject yesterday, charging that Edwards "has talked more about trade in the last five weeks than in the last five years.'' And Kerry retained a substantial lead in Ohio over the weekend, according to an ARG poll, with the support of 47 percent of those surveyed compared with Edwards' 26 percent.

The closest battle between the two leading Democrats may take place in Georgia, next-door to South Carolina, the state of Edwards' birth, and the only one he has captured in the nomination battle so far. Richard Ray, the president of the Georgia AFL-CIO, supports Kerry but noted that Edwards' regional appeal would be an obvious factor in the contest there.

"That will make a difference. As Southerners say, 'He talks like us,' " Ray said. "Maybe that shouldn't be the case, but that's reality. That will make a lot of difference in Georgia.''

Edwards could also be helped in Georgia by the fact that the state does not have party registration, and thus tomorrow's balloting is open to any registered voter. Exit polls have shown that, in South Carolina, Wisconsin and several other earlier primary states, Edwards has received a disproportionate share of support from political independents drawn to Democratic primaries. In addition, the Democratic primary shares the ballot with a referendum on which state flag the Georgia should fly. The referendum is the sequel to a long-running controversy in the state over a former state flag that incorporated the Confederate Stars and Bars. Independent and even normally Republican voters drawn by the flag question could conceivably swell Edwards' Georgia total tomorrow.

Polls, however, have shown Kerry with a lead in Georgia, although the size of his margin varied widely on two surveys released over the weekend. An ARG poll showed the margin at 48 percent to 38 percent in Kerry's favor, a strong showing for Kerry, but one that suggested that the lead was not out of reach for Edwards. The Atlanta Journal-Constitution, however, published a survey by Zogby Research yesterday that showed a significantly larger advantage for Kerry -- 45 percent to 26 percent, with nearly a fifth of the voters still undecided.

Referring to Edwards' showing in states such as South Carolina and Wisconsin, where he lost narrowly to Kerry, Ray noted, "He has a track record of coming on strong in the last week.''

If Edwards cannot show signs of closing the gap with Kerry tomorrow, he will come under increasing pressure -- financial and from Democratic colleagues -- to close down his presidential bid.

First published on March 1, 2004 at 12:00 am
Fritz Wenzel of The Blade of Toledo, Ohio, and the Block News Alliance contributed to this report. James O'Toole can be reached at jotoole@post-gazette.com or 412-263-1562.
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