While steelworkers and their unions railed against President Bush's decision to lift tariffs on steel imports 16 months early, most analysts and even some steel company executives said they expect the much-anticipated decision will have little immediate impact on the recovering industry.

They say the weaker dollar, higher steel prices overseas and rising ocean freight costs make it less likely foreign producers will send steel here. Indeed, steel imports fell 29 percent in the first 10 months of the year.

"I don't think it's going to have a major effect," said John Anton of Global Insight, an economic consulting firm.

U.S. Steel Chairman Thomas J. Usher, who co-chaired a fund raiser for Bush in Pittsburgh on Tuesday, was disappointed by the president's decision and predicted it will complicate the industry's recovery, particularly for weaker players. But he conceded that changed economic circumstances as well as industry initiatives made possible by the tariffs will limit the consequences.

"With the currency situation, it is very difficult even for low-cost producers to bring steel into this market," he said. "I'm not anticipating any great [import] surges, but we will be closely monitoring all trade."

Weirton Steel Chief Executive Officer D. Leonard Wise said the bankrupt West Virginia producer won't be as negatively impacted as he once thought. The improving world economy "will ease any negative effects of losing the tariffs," Wise said.

Mark Glyptis, president of the Independent Steelworkers Union at Weirton, wasn't as sanguine.

"I personally feel betrayed," Glyptis said. "Today will go down as a dark day in the history of the American steel industry."

Bush imposed the tariffs in March 2002, when the industry was plagued by a spate of bankruptcies as prices plummeted to 20-year lows. Under the program, selected steel imports were subjected to maximum duties of 30 percent in the first year, 24 percent in the second year and 18 percent in the third year. Restricting imports was supposed to give the hemorrhaging steelmakers time to get back on their feet.

The tariffs sparked unprecedented change in an industry notoriously reluctant to change.

New labor agreements negotiated with the United Steelworkers of America dramatically reduced the size of work forces and provided more flexible work rules. Troubled steelmakers shed billions in retirement obligations in bankruptcy, then were acquired by large, healthier competitors such as U.S. Steel. Consolidation offers potential for more efficiencies and gives the fragmented industry much-needed leverage with major customers.

"They've had a chance to reorganize. They've done that and now they need to get on with competition," said William Gaskin, head of a coalition of manufacturers who use steel.

Gaskin said removing import restrictions will help steel buyers at a time when the strengthening U.S. economy and booming demand in China are sending prices higher. U.S. producers are planning to increase prices $30 per ton next month, but with the tariffs eliminated, the threat of imports should help keep a lid on, Anton said.

Car and appliance makers and other manufacturers have argued the tariffs led to higher steel prices, making them less competitive and jeopardizing more jobs than the tariffs protected. Steel producers rebutted the claim, insisting a spike in prices early last year was related to the temporary shutdown of LTV Steel and other producers. But the steel users' argument resonated in Washington.

"The tariffs have caused a great deal of disruption for much of our industry. This action will help level the playing field for many companies," said Malcolm O'Hagan, president of the National Electrical Manufacturers Association.

Given the amount of rhetoric, the fact that the tariffs applied to a limited amount of steel was often overlooked. Foreign producers and U.S. consumers urged Bush to exempt a host of imports from the extra charges. In the end, the import duties applied to only about 7 percent of U.S. steel consumption, said United Steelworkers President Leo Gerard.

Industry officials had maintained more time was needed to complete the restructuring made possible by the tariffs. One of the few sticking to that argument yesterday was Gerard, who said Bush "literally capitulated" to European countries who threatened to place sanctions on U.S. exports if the tariffs weren't removed. The threat of the sanctions was bolstered by the World Trade Organization's ruling that the tariffs are illegal.

"I think what we've said is ... don't expect us to defend industrial America," Gerard said. "I think it's a dark day for manufacturers. I think it's a dark day for industrial workers."

Gerard said the industry has not returned to profitability, citing the fact that Weirton and other producers filed for bankruptcy after the tariffs were imposed. Moreover, the ongoing consolidation in the industry will be jeopardized by removing the stability the tariffs provided, he said.