Sometimes it's not the leaks, it's the fast-moving rumors that are hard for Washington to contain.

Take, for example, the pesky plywood problem that's been driving the home building industry crazy for the past couple of months. Prices have hit what some describe as historic highs, in some cases almost doubling.

A sheet of 15/32 CDX southern plywood that cost $330 per 1,000 square feet in July was running $545 by the end of September, according to an Oregon company that tracks prices.

Somebody must be at fault.

The most detailed explanations expound on fires out West that slowed production at the mills, wet weather in the East and South that made it difficult to harvest wood, low inventories set by managers expecting a down economy to slow sales and a subsequent home-building burst spurred on by low interest rates.

But those aren't the most compelling theories.

"Initially, everyone was blaming it on the hurricane," said Steve Miller, co-owner of Miller Ace Hardware on Brownsville Road. But Isabel, he said, turned out not to be a culprit.

The other big target for blame, he said, was "the military." The U.S. military did make a couple of big purchases in July and August. The first chunk was used to help the First Armored Division in Iraq in building tent floors and barracks. It was not, as some have implied, taken to rebuild that country with the side effect of forcing higher prices on Americans, according to the Defense Logistics Agency.

The agency, which keeps the military well supplied, picked up a second big load to replenish the stocks it keeps on hand to fill ongoing military needs in the United States and other places where there are defense operations.

"We make these large purchases all the time," said agency spokeswoman Dawn Dearden.

She estimated the agency's total plywood purchase at 666,000 sheets of plywood worth about $13.3 million. Sounds big but, Dearden said, that's tiny in comparison to the overall market -- just one-tenth of one percent of the total.

She'd like everyone to stop blaming the military for swings in the skittish plywood market. "I think to single out any one factor is truly unfair."

The agency has already communicated its concerns to the National Association of Home Builders, which had mentioned that the defense purchases may have had a psychological effect.

A paper issued by the builders group this week lists a number of factors in the market swings for plywood and OSB (oriented strand board), including strong demand from single-family builders and insufficient inventories.

The home builder's group is downplaying the military issue. "I think the Iraq thing is a red herring," said Michael Carliner, an economist for the builders group. "That really has gotten really overblown."

Maybe, like Hurricane Isabel which also took some heat for the price hikes, the whole thing will blow over.

If prices stay level even for a couple of weeks, the industry could catch its breath, said Ron Mistic, purchasing director of Allegheny Millwork & Lumber on the South Side.

For several weeks, Mistic said, the price quotes he's been getting from suppliers have only been good for about a day. Three weeks ago, the company went back to an old policy of only honoring estimates made within the past seven days. Before that, estimates were good for 30 days.

"We tried to hold on as long as we could," said Mistic.

The company's sales people aren't happy because it means they may have to fill out all the paperwork again if a buyer takes longer than a week to decide.

Carliner, at the home builders group, thinks prices may have peaked. "There's a good chance they will fall as fast as they rose."