SACRAMENTO, Calif. -- For years, Gray Davis turned his aloof public persona into a political asset. Californians weren't electing him for his charm, he often said. They wanted experience and competence.

But when experience and competence failed him-as the state's projected two-year budget shortfall soared to $38 billion, and employment plummeted in the high-tech sector, he didn't have the luxury of falling back on charisma, voters' goodwill and powerful, loyal political friends to help him weather the storm.

"The reason to support him disappeared," said University of California-San Diego political science professor Gary Jacobson.

"If people love you, they'll give you a little more leeway to screw up. He doesn't have that kind of cushion."

The state's Democratic Party and organized labor have declared loyalty to Davis and denounced the recall, but they've also hedged their bets by endorsing the principal Democrat running in the recall race, Lt. Gov. Cruz Bustamante, just in case. Bustamante, elected independently of Davis, has an icy relationship with his superior, as do many Democratic lawmakers.

Bustamante and action-movie hero Arnold Schwarzenegger, a moderate Republican, have emerged in polls as the leading candidates to replace Davis if he should be recalled.

Among the better-known names on the ballot of 133 candidates are two other Republicans, conservative state Sen. Tom McClintock and former Major League Baseball Commissioner Peter Ueberroth, as well as commentator Arianna Huffington, running as an Independent.

Davis "doesn't have any friends," said University of California-Berkeley political science professor Ray Wolfinger. "Several years ago, he got some really awful news coverage when he gave a speech and essentially denounced the Democratic[-controlled] legislature for thinking it was an equal branch of government, that they were there just to pass his legislation."

But other California governors have faced similar problems and haven't faced recall. Davis' predecessor, Republican Pete Wilson, struggled with a budget shortfall that also approached a third of the general fund during the early 1990s recession that centered on the aerospace and finance industries in southern California. With bipartisan help, he raised taxes. Recall petitions circulated but went nowhere.

"With Pete Wilson -- at the depth of his popularity, people didn't like him, but they had respect for him," said state Senate Republican leader James Brulte. "He could hold onto that and build on that when the crisis was over. I don't think the average voter likes Gray Davis now, nor do they trust him. It's the political equivalent of bankruptcy."

Davis spokesman Gabriel Sanchez noted that over the years 32 recall attempts have preceded this one. The difference this time, he said, was the willingness of a millionaire congressman, Darrell Issa, who wanted to be governor and was willing to foot the $3 million bill to hire professional signature-gatherers.

Issa's infusion of cash came just as the latest recall effort, like its predecessors, was losing steam. Issa later dropped his candidacy.

"When you look at the previous two governors, Pete Wilson and George Deukmejian, they were not stand-up comics," said Sanchez. "They were not known for being jovial. They weren't blessed with charisma. They were effective problem-solvers.

It took a series of events to put the usually sunny Californians into such a foul mood that they would make the unprecedented move of putting a recall question on the ballot:

Hefty spending increases during Davis' first term, made possible largely by capital gains taxes collected on stock options during the boom of the late 1990s. When the economic bubble burst in 2001, it triggered a threefold increase in the state's unpopular vehicle license tax as well as a call from Davis for more dramatic tax hikes and budget cuts that led to college tuition increases and service reductions.

Voters' fondness for passing initiatives to spend state money for after-school and other programs, sometimes without authorizing additional funding to pay for them. Over the years, they also repealed taxes on candy and other snacks and required a two-thirds' vote of the California Assembly to raise taxes.

Recalcitrant Republican legislators, currently outnumbered 48-32 in the state Assembly and 25-15 in the state Senate, refused to offer their votes for significant new taxes in the most recent budget negotiations to balance the books, even though some had helped support earlier Davis budgets that raised spending.

A young and inexperienced legislature created by term limits, which prevent Assembly members from staying in Sacramento for more than six years, or senators for more than eight.

Recall -- which dates back to progressive political reforms enacted in 1911 that also included initiative and referendum -- had been a political resort reserved over the years for city councilmen, mayors and school board members. Never before has it targeted a California governor.

"It's unusual to see it used against someone just six to eight months [after] the election, in which he was elected with a fairly comfortable margin," said Jacobson. "He hasn't done anything illegal. It's purely unhappiness with his performance."

Even after the state weathered the 2001 energy crisis -- during which large portions of California experienced rolling blackouts, electricity prices skyrocketed, and the governor's office signed expensive and unpopular contracts with suppliers to guarantee power -- Davis was re-elected last November.

Having handily defeated a conservative Republican in 1998 in the moderate-to-left-leaning state, Davis further angered the GOP in 2002 when he meddled in their primary -- running ads to steers voters toward Republican businessman Bill Simon that were seen as helping to nominate another staunch conservative who would have trouble winning statewide.

The GOP payback was the successful recall petition drive funded by Issa.

"This is strictly a right-wing power grab by the Republican Party, who don't know how to win [an election] in California," Sanchez said.