But the economists surveyed last year for the inaugural forecast edition of PG Benchmarks have nothing to worry about on either count. Their predictions for 1998 were mostly on target. And the small differences that were revealed by events or by measurement error were all to the good.

So this year we bring them all back to recount what went right with the economy last year, and what they expect for 1999 with a peek at the next millennium. Well, almost all of them. Mellon Bank’s economics department disbanded earlier this year, scuttling one of this region’s few local sources for short-term economic forecasts.

Looking back, our panel of economists agree that the global economic crisis which struck Brazil, Russia and much of Asia had less negative impact on the U.S. economy than was expected, so far. And our domestic market was further buoyed by the resurgence in stocks.

In large part, they credit the Federal Reserve, which responded last fall to global problems with easier monetary policy. The Fed’s actions lowered interest rates, stimulating domestic growth, while also shoring up Asian currencies and their economies by making dollars relatively less attractive to hold than yen.

So national economic growth continued unabated in 1998 - its 3.9 percent increase of real gross domestic product defied these forecasters’ early average expectation of a more temperate 2.9 percent pace of growth. More job growth was also generated - 2.6 percent rather than the 2.2 percent average predicted nationally. And that was sufficient for the U.S. unemployment rate to edge lower to 4.5 percent.

As goes the nation, so goes the region. Job growth of 1.5 percent for the Pittsburgh metro area exceeded the average forecast of 1.2 percent and trimmed one percentage point from the 4.7 percent average forecast for the region’s unemployment rate. Who’s going to complain about those near misses? In fact, last season’s forecasts, especially for the re gion, are deemed quite accurate.

Looking forward, these same forecasters anticipate nearly as much economic growth as last year. And while a slight slowdown is indicated for U.S. output and job growth, the increased economic activity appears to be sufficient to drive unemployment rates lower, regionally and nationally. Reasons for optimism, cited by Stuart Hoffman, chief economist at PNC Bank, include low inflation, a growing federal budget surplus, confident consumers, the rebound in many key stock indices, a strong dollar and affordable interest rates.

Hoffman also lists several potential risks that could hamper growth in 1999, led by an international environment in which several countries remain in recession while others are flirting with one. Even as the most troubled Asian economies begin to stabilize, growth in Europe has begun to stall.

The millennium bug’s threat to incapacitate computer systems throughout the world, creating physical and economic calamity, appears diminished. But the fear may slightly whipsaw economies, as spending shrivels in the first quarter of 2000 in contrast to increased purchases of pre-millennium fixes and stockpiled supplies in the waning days of this century.

An increasingly tight labor market and high levels of personal debt complete Hoffman’s short list of negative factors facing the nation’s economy. None is expected to trigger a U.S. recession this year.

Propelled by the ongoing national expansion and the increase in local construction projects, including the convention center, stadiums, highways and various private Downtown office expansions, Hoffman expects Pittsburgh’s economy to pick up speed in 1999. After posting the lowest forecast for Pittsburgh’s job growth in 1998, PNC Bank is out front with a prediction of 1.7 percent job growth for 1999.

In contrast, RFA, a Philadelphia-based economic research firm, sported the highest, and presumably most accurate, forecast last year for the region’s job growth, but anticipates that growth will slow to 1.0 percent this year.

However, economists often place probabilities on several alternative outcomes. And Mark Zandi, RFA’s chief economist, feels there’s a better chance that 1999 could turn out better, rather than worse, than RFA’s 1999 Pittsburgh forecast suggests.

The relatively rapid adjustment of Pittsburgh’s economic base to one driven by technology and information is viewed by Zandi as an overriding strength for this region. But he sees a high cost structure for production-oriented business as a key disadvantage for the region that drives many to move south, west or overseas. In particular, one of the hallmarks of the current economy is that businesses can’t raise prices, so moving becomes a way to cut costs and raise profits.

Despite the risks from failing foreign economies and the escalating war in Eastern Europe, odds are good that the U.S. economy will grow into the next millennium, and beyond. Economists, known for conservative forecasts rather than for frivolity, all point to a recession-free 1999, which would almost guarantee a record-setting expansion will follow in February, 2000.

The record for the longest U.S. economic expansion - dating back to 1854 - is 106 months, which spanned Feb. 1961 to Dec. 1969. The current expansion, which began in March 1991, is all the more remarkable given that it follows on the heels of the nation’s third longest expansion (Nov. 1982 to July 1990).

In general, recessions have grown shorter and expansions longer during this century. Recessions during the first third of this century averaged 20 months (including the Great Depression), expansions averaged 26 months. Since then, the duration of recessions has been trimmed to about 10 months, while expansions lengthened to 45 months during the ‘ 40s and ‘ 50s, then 67 months, and counting, since 1961.