Hispanics may hold key to swing states in fall election

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ORLANDO, Fla. -- Hispanic voters are poised this year to be the swing votes for president in many of the nation's swing states. They're expected to vote in big numbers again for President Barack Obama, and their numbers are growing.

In Colorado, Nevada, Florida, North Carolina and Virginia, they could determine whether Mr. Obama wins another term or is succeeded by Republican Mitt Romney --if they turn out.

"The president has consistently had broad voter support. The question was enthusiasm," said Matt Barreto, a co-founder of Latino Decisions, which studies Hispanic voting behavior.

That may be why Mr. Obama has vaulted immigration to the forefront of the 2012 campaign, at least for the moment. His announcement last Friday that the government will stop deporting thousands of young undocumented workers was a jolt of fresh energy for Hispanic voters. The president hopes to continue the momentum this Friday, when he addresses the National Association of Latino Elected and Appointed Officials in Orlando.

Mr. Romney, who will speak today at the same group's convention, has a tougher task. Earlier this year, he urged illegal immigrants to engage in "self-deportation," and said he would have opposed Supreme Court Justice Sonia Sotomayor, the nation's first Latino justice, nominated by Mr. Obama.

Mr. Barreto's swing-state poll last week showed enthusiasm for Mr. Obama growing among Latino voters. The president won the Hispanic vote in 2008 by 67 percent to 31 percent, exit polls found, and he's in position to put up similar margins this time. But whether he can sustain enough passion to get more people to the polls is the open question.

"People are concerned about the economy, and Romney talks a lot about job creation," said Angeline Echeverria, executive director of El Pueblo, a nonpartisan community organization in Raleigh, N.C. "He talks about things that might resonate."

Mr. Obama's camp is confident. Adrian Saenz, a veteran Texas political strategist, has been working as the campaign's national Latino vote director since November. Spanish-language ads have been running in Colorado, Nevada and Florida since April. The ads emphasize jobs, health care and education, which polls find are major concerns in the community.

"Mitt Romney is on the wrong side of every issue important to Hispanics," said Gabriela Domenzain, the Obama campaign's director of Hispanic press.

The Romney camp fired back that its candidate's economic message will resonate. "Behind the depressing economic data are real people who are suffering because of the Obama economy. That's why you see a lack of enthusiasm" for the president, said Alberto Martinez, a Tallahassee-based Romney adviser.

Republicans have Hispanic outreach directors in at least six swing states and a national Hispanic outreach director, Bettina Inclan, who is a campaign and Capitol Hill veteran. Two Spanish-language ads have been running in swing states.

"The challenges Mitt Romney faces have been exaggerated by the Obama campaign," Mr. Martinez said, "and the president's support has been exaggerated."

Not all Republicans are so buoyant. "We need to do better among Hispanic voters," said Haley Barbour, a former Mississippi governor and national party chairman. "We also need, in my opinion, to develop a better policy on immigration."

Immigration has been the key flash point in the battle for Latino voters. Many Hispanics were encouraged in 2008 by Mr. Obama's pledge on illegal immigration: "It's absolutely vital that we bring those families out of the shadows, and that we give them the opportunity to travel a pathway to citizenship."

But the White House has done little to seriously engage Congress in crafting path-to-citizenship legislation.

The president helped change the skeptical mood with his announcement last week. Mr. Romney was more vague, saying a longer-term solution was needed. He didn't address the substance of Mr. Obama's action.

In major battleground states, according to the Pew Hispanic Center, the eligible Hispanic voter percentage has been growing.

• Florida, 15.9 percent in 2010, up from 14.5 percent in 2008.

• Nevada, 15.1 percent in 2010, up from 13.5 percent in 2008.

• Colorado, 13.7 percent in 2010, up from 12.6 percent in 2008.

• Virginia, 3.7 percent in 2010, up from 3.3 percent in 2008.

• North Carolina, 2.9 percent in 2010, up from 2.1 percent in 2008.

In Colorado, "if Romney gets 30 percent he'll be pleased," Denver-based strategist Floyd Ciruli said. Mr. Romney has a possible advantage: During the February caucus, he was painted as the GOP primary race's centrist, losing to conservative Rick Santorum.

In Nevada, Democrats have a big edge: The Latino vote was a huge boost for Senate Majority Leader Harry Reid, D-Nev., two years ago in his tight re-election race. But political science professor Eric Herzik at University of Nevada, Reno, warned that turnout is difficult to predict.

nation - electionspresident

First Published June 21, 2012 12:00 AM


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