Sunday, January 11, 2004

By Ann McFeatters, Post-Gazette National Bureau

WASHINGTON -- President Bush has a job approval rating higher than any other incumbent president campaigning for re-election in more than half a century. If he won only the states he carried in 2000 -- and Florida is generally Bush country now -- he would have more than the 270 electoral votes needed for victory. Is it possible he could lose Nov. 2?

Analysis of polling data and interviews with campaign staffs and experienced political consultants indicate that even though Bush is now favored to win, politics in America is so changeable and the nation so politically polarized, the certainty of a Bush victory could evaporate in the 295 days before America votes.

Bush has a job approval rating of 60 percent, according to the Gallup Organization. It's worth remember that in 1980, Jimmy Carter's rating was close to that -- 56 percent. But in less than six months, it plummeted to 31 percent and he lost to Ronald Reagan.

In 1991, after the Gulf War, George H.W. Bush had a job approval of about 90 percent. By January of 1992, election year, it had sunk to 46 percent because of poor economic news. In November, he lost, even though the economy was improving.

In January of 1984, President Reagan had a job approval of 52 percent. In June, that had risen to 54 percent. In November, against Walter Mondale, he won every state but one -- Minnesota, Mondale's home state.

Bill Clinton, seeking re-election in 1996, started the year with a job approval of only 42 percent and was neck-and-neck with popular Republican Senate leader Bob Dole. In November, he won a resounding victory.

In 2000, of course, the election was so close that although Al Gore won the popular vote, the Supreme Court decided the election by giving Florida to Bush based on fewer than 600 popular votes. And by most accounts that closeness continues.

Despite Bush's solid poll ratings and a fractured Democratic field, independent pollster John Zogby, White House pollsters and Democratic pollster Stan Greenberg all said last week they expected a tight race, primarily because the country is almost evenly divided between those who say they are Republicans and those who say they are Democrats.

Until a Democratic nominee firmly emerges in the next two months, a number of polls indicate that in a race between Bush and a generic Democrat, Bush wins -- but just barely.

Just about everyone agrees that the economy and foreign policy will be the two major elements in voters' minds this year. Here are three ways the election could go wrong for Bush:

SCENARIO NO. 1. If the economy does not show solid improvement by November, Bush could be vulnerable to defeat.

Although the economy is improving, one-third of Americans say they are worse off than they were a year ago, according to a Quinnipiac College poll taken last month. A poll for NBC and the Wall Street Journal also taken last month found that 27 percent of Americans say the nation's economy has gotten worse in the past year. Only 22 percent of likely voters told Los Angeles Times pollsters that they are better off financially than they were when George W. Bush became president.

While Wall Street says the economy is improving, there are still many qualms about the strength of the recovery on Main Street, according to pollsters. All the Democratic candidates criticize Bush on his handling of the economy and the loss of nearly 3 million jobs in the last three years, including the loss of jobs to other countries.

SCENARIO NO. 2. If after 11 more months, Iraq is perceived to be a quagmire, no weapons of mass destruction have been found and Americans are still dying at a high rate, Bush could face intense, Vietnam-era dissatisfaction with his foreign policy.

The capture of Saddam Hussein last month was, without doubt, good news for the White House. Bush's job approval shot up, although pollsters are reporting they don't expect "the bounce" to remain for the rest of the year.

SCENARIO NO. 3. Osama bin Laden remains uncaptured and organizes a second, deadly strike against the United States that is seen by many Americans as preventable.

Bush's handling of the Sept. 11 tragedy and his declaration of the war on terrorism united the country and kindled the sympathy of most of the world, including the vast majority of the Muslim world.

Since then, that sympathy has largely dissipated. As of last November, only 48 percent of Americans said they felt safer. A month later, after Saddam's capture, 56 percent said they felt safer -- even though Saddam had no known role in Sept. 11. But a third said they felt less safe and that they are braced for another attack.

Analysts are divided on what could happen to Bush's popularity if there is another attack. Some point out that in time of crisis, the country almost always unites around the president, especially if he shows solid leadership.

But some public opinion experts think that if a second shocking attack occurred, a wave of anger that the government had not prevented it would hurt the president.

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