Thursday, December 04, 2003

By Maeve Reston, Pittsburgh Post-Gazette

A roundup of recent polling in the presidential primary campaign

Recent New Hampshire polls

Primary election is Jan. 27

Dean Shoots Ahead, Kerry slides in Nov. 30- Dec. 3 poll by New Hampshire-based American Research Group, Inc.
americanresearchgroup.com/nhpoll/dem/

2a	Dec. 3	Sept. 2003
Fmr. Gov. Howard Dean	45 percent	31 percent
Sen. John F. Kerry	13 percent	21 percent
Ret. Gen. Wesley K. Clark	11 percent	2 percent
Sen. Joseph I. Lieberman	5 percent	5 percent
Sen. John Edwards	3 percent	2 percent
Rep. Richard A. Gephardt	5 percent	8 percent
Rep. Dennis J. Kucinich	2 percent	1 percent
Fmr. Amb. Carol Moseley Braun	0 percent	1 percent
Rev. Al Sharpton	1 percent	0 percent
Undecided	15 percent	27 percent

American Research Group Inc., a Manchester, N.H.-based organization interviewed by phone 600 registered Democrats and undeclared voters who were randomly selected. The margin of error is plus or minus 4 percentage points.

Howard Dean opens significant lead over his rivals in the New Hampshire Democratic presidential contest in Dec. 1-3 poll by Zogby International.
( www.zogby.com/news/ReadNews.dbm?ID=763 )

	Dec. 1-3
Fmr. Gov. Howard Dean	42 percent
Sen. John F. Kerry	12 percent
Ret. Gen. Wesley K. Clark	9 percent
Sen. Joseph I. Lieberman	7 percent
Sen. John Edwards	4 percent
Rep. Richard A. Gephardt	3 percent
Rep. Dennis J. Kucinich	2 percent
Fmr. Amb. Carol Moseley Braun	--
Rev. Al Sharpton	--
Undecided	19 percent

Zogby International, with offices in Utica, N.Y. and Washington D.C., interviewed by phone 503 likely Democratic and Independent voters in New Hampshire's Democratic primary election. The margin of error is +/- 4.5 percentage points.

Dean holds his lead, Kerry slides in Nov. 17-20 poll by New Hampshire-based American Research Group Inc.
( www.americanresearchgroup.com/nhpoll/dem/ )

	Nov. 20 2003	Sept. 2003
Fmr. Gov. Howard Dean	38 percent	31 percent
Sen. John F. Kerry	17 percent	21 percent
Ret. Gen. Wesley K. Clark	7 percent	2 percent
Sen. Joseph I. Lieberman	5 percent	5 percent
Sen. John Edwards	4 percent	2 percent
Rep. Richard A. Gephardt	4 percent	8 percent
Rep. Dennis J. Kucinich	3 percent	1 percent
Fmr. Amb. Carol Moseley Braun	1 percent	1 percent
Rev. Al Sharpton	0 percent	0 percent
Undecided	21 percent	27 percent

American Research Group Inc., a Manchester, N.H.-based organization interviewed by phone 600 likely Democratic primary voters who were randomly selected. The margin of error is plus or minus 4 percentage points.

Dean expands lead in New Hampshire in Nov. 6-13 poll by University of New Hampshire Survey Center

	Nov. 2003	July 2003	April 2003
Fmr. Gov. Howard Dean	38 percent	16 percent	19 percent
Sen. John F. Kerry	16 percent	18 percent	14 percent
Ret. Gen. Wesley K. Clark	5 percent	3 percent	2 percent
Sen. John Edwards	5 percent	2 percent	2 percent
Sen. Joseph I. Lieberman	4 percent	11 percent	11 percent
Rep. Richard A. Gephardt	3 percent	3 percent	7 percent
Rep. Dennis J. Kucinich	1 percent	> 1 percent	1 percent
Rev. Al Sharpton	0 percent	1 percent	1 percent
Fmr. Amb. Carol Moseley Braun	0 percent	1 percent	2 percent
Undecided	27 percent	30 percent	38 percent

For the November poll, the University of New Hampshire Survey Center conducted interviews with 446 randomly selected likely Democratic primary voters, and the margin of error is plus or minus 4.6 percentage points. The poll in April was based on interviews with 143 likely Democratic voters, and in July the survey was based on interviews with 266 likely Democratic voters.

Recent South Carolina polls

Primary election is Feb. 3

Edwards on top in South Carolina in Nov. 20-23 Feldman Group poll

( www.greenvillemagazine.com/poll.html )

	Nov.20-23
Sen. John Edwards	17 percent
Rev. Al Sharpton	12 percent
Fmr. Gov. Howard Dean	11 percent
Ret. Gen. Wesley K. Clark	10 percent
Sen. Joseph I. Lieberman	9 percent
Rep. Richard A. Gephardt	8 percent
Carol Moseley Braun	6 percent
Sen. John F. Kerry	5 percent
Rep. Dennis J. Kucinich	1 percent
Undecided	22 percent

The Feldman Group, a Washington, D.C.-based Democratic research firm, interviewed by phone 400 likely Democratic primary voters who were randomly selected. The margin of error is plus or minus 4 percentage points.

Clark leads in South Carolina in Nov. 21-26 American Research Group Inc. poll
( www.americanresearchgroup.com/sc/ )

	Nov. 2003	Sept. 2003
Ret. Gen. Wesley K. Clark	15 percent	7 percent
Sen. John Edwards	12 percent	16 percent
Rev. Al Sharpton	9 percent	5 percent
Fmr. Gov. Howard Dean	9 percent	6 percent
Sen. Joseph I. Lieberman	9 percent	7 percent
Rep. Richard A. Gephardt	7 percent	5 percent
Fmr. Amb. Carol Moseley Braun	3 percent	4 percent
Sen. John F. Kerry	3 percent	5 percent
Rep. Dennis J. Kucinich	1 percent	1 percent
Undecided	32 percent	42 percent

American Research Group Inc., a Manchester, N.H.-based organization, interviewed by phone 600 likely Democratic primary voters who were randomly selected. The margin of error is plus or minus 4 percentage points.

Recent Iowa polls

Primary caucuses are Jan. 19

Dean and Gephardt Battle for Lead in Dec. 1-2 poll by Zogby International poll.
www.zogby.com/news/ReadNews.dbm?ID=762

2b	Dec. 2003	Sept. 2003
Fmr. Gov. Howard Dean	26 percent	23 percent
Rep. Richard A. Gephardt	22 percent	17 percent
Sen. John F. Kerry	9 percent	11 percent
Sen. John Edwards	5 percent	6 percent
Ret. Gen. Wesley K. Clark	4 percent	1 percent
Sen. Joseph I. Lieberman	2 percent	4 percent
Rep. Dennis J. Kucinich	2 percent	2 percent
Rev. Al Sharpton	0.3 percent	0.3 percent
Fmr. Amb. Carol Moseley Braun	1 percent	1 percent
Not sure	28 percent	32 percent

Zogby International, with offices in Utica, N.Y. and Washington D.C., interviewed by phone 500 likely caucus voters in Iowa. The margin of error is +/- 4.5 percentage points.

Gephardt edges ahead in Nov. 2-5 Des Moines Register Iowa poll

( miva.dmregister.com/miva/cgi-bin/miva?extras/iowapoll/poll.mv+file=prez0311 )

	Nov. 2003	July 2003
Rep. Richard A. Gephardt	27 percent	21 percent
Fmr. Gov. Howard Dean	20 percent	23 percent
Sen. John F. Kerry	15 percent	14 percent
Sen. Joseph I. Lieberman	5 percent	10 percent
Sen. John Edwards	5 percent	5 percent
Ret. Gen. Wesley K. Clark	4 percent	n/a
Rep. Dennis J. Kucinich	3 percent	4 percent
Rev. Al Sharpton	1 percent	1 percent
Fmr. Amb. Carol Moseley Braun	1 percent	1 percent
Sen. Bob Graham	n/a	1 percent
Uncommitted/Not sure	19 percent	20 percent

The results of the Nov. 2-5 poll are based on interviews with 501 likely Democratic caucus goers, and the July 22-29 poll was based on interviews with 402 likely caucus participants. The margin of error is plus or minus four percentage points.

Recent National polls

No clear leader for the Democratic nomination in national CNN/USAToday/Gallup Poll conducted Nov. 14-16
( www.gallup.com/poll/releases/pr031125.asp )

	Nov. 14-16	Sept. 19-21
Fmr. Gov. Howard Dean(VT)	17 percent	13 percent
Ret. Gen. Wesley K. Clark(Ark.)	17 percent	22 percent
Sen. Joseph I. Lieberman(Conn.)	13 percent	10 percent
Rep. Richard A. Gephardt(MO)	13 percent	11 percent
Sen. John F. Kerry(MA)	9 percent	11 percent
Sen. John Edwards(NC)	6 percent	4 percent
Rev. Al Sharpton(NY)	5 percent	4 percent
Carol Moseley Braun(Ill.)	4 percent	3 percent
Rep. Dennis J. Kucinich	3 percent	2 percent
Sen. Bob Graham	n/a	4 percent
No Opinion	13 percent	16 percent

Results were based on phone interviews with 398 Democratic voters across the nation, and the margin of error was plus or minus 3 percentage points.

Dean leads with slim margin in Cook Political Report poll conducted between Nov. 4-6 and Nov. 18-20 by Ipsos Public Affairs
( www.ipsos-reid.com/pdf/media/mr031124-3tbrevis.pdf )

Fmr. Gov. Howard Dean	20 percent
Ret. Gen. Wesley K. Clark	16 percent
Rep. Richard A. Gephardt	14 percent
Sen. Joseph I. Lieberman	12 percent
Sen. John F. Kerry	10 percent
Sen. John Edwards	5 percent
Rep. Dennis J. Kucinich	4 percent
Rev. Al Sharpton	3 percent
Fmr. Amb. Carol Moseley Braun	3 percent
Other	12 percent

Poll results were based on phone interviews with 527 likely Democratic primary participants, and the margin of error was plus or minus 4 percentage points.

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