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Friday, May 17, 2002

By John M.R. Bull, Post-Gazette Harrisburg Correspondent

HARRISBURG -- A poll released yesterday says that Ed Rendell is leading Bob Casey Jr. by 10 percentage points as the race for the Democratic Party's gubernatorial nomination approaches the finish line.

But the number of undecided voters remains high.

A last-minute media blitz could narrow Rendell's lead, but he likely will win, said James Lee, president of Susquehanna Polling and Research Inc., a Harrisburg-based Republican polling firm.

"The media message is most impacting how people make up their minds in the last five days," Lee said. "Over the next five days, the battle will be fought over who can best appeal to the undecided voters."

The poll, conducted Monday through Wednesday among 729 likely Democratic voters, has a theoretical margin of error of 3.6 percent.

The poll showed Rendell, the former mayor of Philadelphia, with a 46 percent to 36 percent statewide lead over Casey, the current state auditor general. However, a large number of those surveyed said they remained undecided about whom to vote for in Tuesday's primary.

The results are similar to other recent statewide polls.

Rendell carries an overwhelming lead in Philadelphia and the southeastern part of the state, 76 percent to 13 percent, which is partially offset by Casey's narrow lead in the rest of the state, Lee said.

In the southwest, Casey holds a 42 percent to 37 percent lead over Rendell, which narrows in Allegheny County to a razor-thin 39 percent to 37 percent lead.

The survey also painted a portrait of the average undecided voter, who must be courted by Casey in the remaining days in order to win, Lee said. The average undecided voter is female, a senior citizen who lives in an area such as Johnstown where Casey holds a narrow lead, believes education is the most important problem in the state, and is more "turned off" by Rendell's media message than Casey's, Lee said.

As a result, the undecided voters are more likely to pull the lever for Casey on Tuesday, but it may not be enough to overtake Rendell if there is a strong voter turnout in the southeast, Lee said.

Last month, the Pennsylvania Poll, conducted for the Post-Gazette, found that Rendell was leading Casey 45 percent to 40 percent, with 15 percent undecided.