Sunday, December 17, 2000

By Ann McFeatters, Post-Gazette National Bureau

From the start of his campaign, long before the post-election period began to resemble the movie "Groundhog Day," George W. Bush promised to be a "uniter" if elected president.

The world is watching to see if he can deliver.

"I am optimistic that we can change the tone of Washington, D.C. ," Bush pledged on the night Al Gore conceded and called Bush "president-elect." But after one of the closest, most bitter presidential elections in U. S. history, an election that left the Senate divided 50-50 and the Republicans barely in control of the House, others were not so optimistic.

At 54, Bush has led a charmed life -- son of a former president, an undergraduate at Yale, a Harvard M.B.A., a multimillionaire by virtue of buying into the Texas Rangers baseball team. He's a "born-again" Methodist, father of twin daughters, a man who says his best decision in life was marrying his wife, Laura.

Even with that background, he will need all the luck he can muster. And he'll need help from experienced Washington hands, like the people he has chosen for his inner circle.

Critics scoffed that the people he began tapping -- Dick Cheney, his running mate; Andrew Card, chosen to be chief of staff; Colin Powell, the former chairman of the Joint Chiefs; presumptive national security adviser Condoleezza Rice, and many others -- were retreads from his father's administration. Allies pointed out that presidents often take top talent from previous administrations of the same party.

An unanswered question is whether those GOP veterans will advise him to cooperate with Democratic congressional leaders, or stick to issues that could prove more divisive, like an across-the-board tax cut.

Moderate Republicans and many Democrats, led by Senate Democratic leader Tom Daschle of South Dakota and House Democratic leader Richard Gephardt of Missouri, want Bush to consider Democrats almost equal partners. Bush has no mandate because the electorate was so evenly split, they point out, and so they argue that both parties should work on issues where there is common ground, such as education reform and prescription drug coverage.

But there are plenty of conservative Republicans, like Senate Majority Leader Trent Lott and No. 2 House leader Tom DeLay, who want Bush to push the most controversial parts of his agenda vigorously and right away: not just a big tax cut, but also vouchers for private school tuition and partial privatization of Social Security.

There are plenty of Democrats, too, liberals and moderates alike, who would rather run against a do-nothing Republican government in 2002 in an attempt to gain control of Congress than to help Bush and the GOP collect legislative achievements.

Bush also enters office with much of the most hardcore Democratic constituency -- African-Americans -- angry with him and the Republican Party for paying little attention to black voters' claims that they were systematically prevented from voting in Florida. Some said they were blocked from polls or found their registration records weren't on file when they arrived to vote.

Many of the "undervoted" ballots that the Gore campaign unsuccessfully attempted to have examined -- where holes were punched for some races but not for president -- were in minority precincts.

The Rev. Jesse Jackson went so far as to say Bush had "stolen" the election and was left with no "moral authority" to be president. Bush has since spoken with Jackson and promised to look into the allegations. His brother, Florida Gov. Jeb Bush, who was already on thin ice with minorities for ending affirmative action in state institutions, immediately promised to work on electoral reform to prevent such problems in the future.

As he tries to find his way among all these constituencies, the president-elect is getting two different kinds of messages from pollsters. One is embodied by Frank Luntz, who sent a memo to Republicans on Capitol Hill with confidential information on proposals Americans would support, and who advises Bush to act fast before opposition hardens.

"When Bush grabs the bully pulpit, Republicans in Congress will no longer have to outshout Bill Clinton," Luntz said. "If Republicans are smart, they will stay at work and have no recesses for 100 days and help Bush do something quick."

Grimacing, Luntz went on to say that "unfortunately, the Senate is so arrogant, even after the [election] scare, they don't understand they will determine if Bush is a success or a failure. And if he's a failure, God help them in 2002."

The other approach comes from John Zogby, an independent pollster, who said the close election means "Bush cannot turn this into a mandate for his agenda. There is a mandate from the American people, but it is for bipartisanship."

If Bush follows that advice, he may invite Democrats to join his administration, although he'll have a tough time getting anyone to leave the Senate for an administrative post.

While the Senate is a traditional pool from which to draw top office holders, it is unlikely that any Democrats -- or Republicans, for that matter -- would leave, because doing so might tip the party split that now stands at 50-50.

The paramount issue as Bush prepares to take over is the economy. With the stock market gyrating, Cheney made the calculated decision to publicly suggest a slowdown, possibly a recession, may be coming.

Cheney served during recessions in the Bush and Ford administrations, both of which had a lot to do with those presidents' losing bids for re-election. So he might be trying to plant the idea that if a recession occurs, it started under Bill Clinton, not George W. Bush, and that a tax cut might be needed to stimulate the economy.

Democrats say they have no intention of going along with an across-the-board tax cut. Bush has no intention of giving up on it.

"I believe strongly ... the reason I was able to run the race I ran against a sitting vice president, with what had been and now hopefully will be a good economy and the world basically at peace, is because of the ideas that I talked about, including a ... plan that allows us to provide tax relief for folks and at the same time balance the budget," Bush said after the election.

He's being urged to assemble a bipartisan task force to plot a strategy for keeping Social Security viable as the baby boom generation ages and nears retirement. The two most likely chairmen are Democratic Sen. John Breaux of Louisiana, a veteran of Social Security task forces, and Republican Sen. Bill Frist of Tennessee, a surgeon.

Two immediate problems await Bush. One is to produce a budget -- does he increase spending for defense, education, prescription drug coverage and Medicare while cutting taxes, leaving no money to pay down the debt? Another is rapidly rising energy prices, especially for home heating. Bush will become president just as millions of Americans get heating bills much larger than last year's.

Bush's handling of China, the world's next potential superpower, also will be under scrutiny. Although he favored the Clinton administration's efforts to expand trade with China and pave the way for it to join the World Trade Organization, he will have to deal with knotty problems that deeply trouble the relationship, including the future status of Taiwan and China's human rights record.

On the night of his acceptance speech last week, Bush concluded by saying: "The presidency is more than an honor, more than an office. It is a charge to keep, and I will give it my all."

Then, just before he proudly accepted an outburst of applause and gave his three-fingered "W for victory" salute, there was a brief moment when he looked stricken -- as if suddenly realizing the enormous size of the task ahead.

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