Sunday, February 29, 2004

By Ron Weiskind, Pittsburgh Post-Gazette

What surprises does Oscar have in store for us tonight?

	Related articles: Upsets: We've learned to expect the unexpected Oscar nominations

The Academy of Motion Picture Arts and Sciences has already shocked us -- and maybe itself -- with this year's nominations. A 13-year-old New Zealander is up for Best Actress. Two Best Actor hopefuls were nominated for what might be considered comic performances, which usually fly under Oscar's radar. A Brazilian film, "City of God," took four nominations, while a Civil War epic "Cold Mountain" was frozen out of expected nods for Best Picture, Actress and Director.

And who can forget last year's awards, when Roman Polanski -- a fugitive living overseas since his 1977 statutory rape conviction -- scored a stunning upset as Best Director for "The Pianist"? The movie's leading man, Adrien Brody, became the youngest winner of the Best Actor prize by upsetting former winners and heavy favorites Jack Nicholson and Daniel Day-Lewis.

Given all that, the most remarkable thing about handicapping tonight's Academy Awards ceremony (airing on ABC at 8:30; arrivals air at 8.) is how predictable it all seems. The probable winners seemed obvious almost from the announcement of the nominations a month ago.

Maybe that just sets us up for more of the unexpected -- or maybe the surprises will come in Oscar's recognition of genres and performances it usually overlooks.

Here are my predictions:

Best Picture: Never before has a movie been anointed the favorite to win Oscar's top prize more than a year in advance. But never before has there been a phenomenon like the "Lord of the Rings" trilogy. New Line Pictures took an extraordinary financial gamble by greenlighting the project and now is reaping the benefits in both box-office return and critical acclaim. The first two films, "The Fellowship of the Ring" and "The Two Towers," were nominated for Best Picture, but the smart money said Academy voters would wait until the final installment, "The Return of the King," to honor the trilogy's exceptional achievements.

I was dubious at first, mainly because no fantasy film has ever won Best Picture -- not "The Wizard of Oz," not "Star Wars," not "E.T." What sets "Return of the King" apart is that the movie's epic battle between good and evil has its real-life counterpart in the grim struggle against terrorism and its potential to disrupt and transform our world. That gives the movie all the weight it needs for Oscar's purposes.

Best Actor: Johnny Depp's tongue protruded so far into his cheek as Capt. Jack Sparrow in "Pirates of the Caribbean" that even serious-minded Oscar voters had to take notice. Everyone was talking about his performance, which drove Disney's summer action flick near the top of the box-office charts. Then came veteran funnyman Bill Murray as the bemused yet forlorn actor who was all alone and feeling blue amid Tokyo's bright neon in the delightful "Lost in Translation." Rarely do Academy voters nominate even one performance from a lighthearted film. But they left room for the heavy hitters, too: tragic Ben Kingsley in "The House of Sand and Fog," war-weary Jude Law in "Cold Mountain" and grieving Sean Penn in "Mystic River."

I was ready to bestow the award upon Penn as soon as I saw his teary back-porch monologue. But part of me would rejoice in seeing Murray's sublime performance rewarded -- and Hollywood may feel that way as well, which is why the former "Saturday Night Live" star has a real chance to win. But showy turns usually prevail over understated ones, which would favor Penn (although Brody won for a quiet performance last year). Penn has toned down his antiwar rhetoric and his usual indifference toward the Oscars, which also helps his cause. I'm sticking with Penn, whose time seems to have come after three previous nominations. But I'll probably be rooting for Murray.

Best Actress: All you have to do is see how, in the movie "Monster," the gorgeous actress and former model Charlize Theron transforms into a thick-boned, heavyset woman with a muddy complexion and the mannerisms of what the tobacco companies once targeted as the "virile female" -- uneducated, blue-collar cruisers -- to understand why she's got a mortal lock on the Oscar statuette. This is more than dressing down to impress Oscar voters; this is an actress allowing herself to be swallowed up in the role (based on fact) of a prostitute who becomes a serial killer. Theron wins on merit, just as Halle Berry did a few years ago for "Monster's Ball."

Best Supporting Actor: Now here's a surprise. Until this year, Tim Robbins had never been nominated for an Academy Award as an actor. His only other Oscar bid was as the director of "Dead Man Walking." He's up this year for his performance in "Mystic River" as the emotionally damaged Dave Boyle, the man at the pivot of the film's tragic arc. He figures to win, especially since the other strong tragic performance in the field belongs to Benicio Del Toro (in "21 Grams"), who won just a few years ago and isn't likely to repeat so soon.

Best Supporting Actress: The third time figures to be the charm for "Lord of the Rings" in the Best Picture category, and you would think that three consecutive acting nominations would do the trick for Renee Zellweger, whose Mammy Yokum farmhand in "Cold Mountain" couldn't be more different from her conniving musical murderess in "Chicago" or her lovelorn British working girl in "Bridget Jones's Diary," for which she received Best Actress nominations the past two years.

On the other hand, Al Pacino got four straight nominations in the 1970s without winning. Gregory Peck, Deborah Kerr, Richard Burton and Glenn Close all came away emptyhanded while collecting three consecutive nominations. But I figure Zellweger will take the statuette tonight. Fellow nominees Holly Hunter and Patricia Clarkson were in small independent films. Marcia Gay Harden of "Mystic River" won just a few years ago, and it's too soon for a repeat. Iranian actress Shohreh Aghdashloo may be the dark horse for "The House of Sand and Fog." But Zellweger enlivened "Cold Mountain" just when it was needed, and her first scene in the movie made you forget all about Roxie Hart. That should be enough to win.

Best Director: Let's see now. Peter Jackson shot the three "Lord of the Rings" films simultaneously, trimmed J.R.R. Tolkien's beloved story without angering the purists, staged several epic battle scenes and also effective personal moments, managed a huge cast superbly, didn't allow his budget to balloon out of control and his films earned a ton of coin. How can he not win?

Animated Feature: Nothing fishy about this choice -- "Finding Nemo" made a lot of top 10 lists and was the biggest hit of the summer. Now it gets Oscar gold, too.

Foreign Language Film: You wouldn't recognize four of the five nominees with or without subtitles. The only hopeful that has received widespread distribution in America is the Canadian drama "The Barbarian Invasions," in which the characters primarily speak French. Fortunately, the movie happens to be worthy of the honor. The Oscar goes to "Barbarian Invasions."

Adapted Screenplay: "Lord of the Rings: Return of the King" won't win every award for which it is nominated. Even partisans acknowledge the film's multiple endings as a shortcoming. I think it's more likely that Hollywood veteran Brian Helgeland's screenplay for "Mystic River" will take home the prize.

Original Screenplay: Two of the five nominees have a real chance to win. "In America," written by director Jim Sheridan and his daughters Naomi and Kristen, has a fiercely loyal following with a strong affection for the movie. But I'm guessing that another film adored by its adherents will take the prize, especially because the screenwriter belongs to a Hollywood dynasty. I'm picking "Lost in Translation," written by Sofia Coppola. She would be the third generation of her family to win an Academy Award -- her father, director Francis Ford Coppola, and her grandfather, composer Carmine Coppola, also have Oscars. Cousin Nicolas Cage has one, too.

Documentary Feature: Here's another Oscar surprise. The documentary branch of the academy has spent years ignoring the best nonfiction films in favor of obscure entries that, if they find an audience at all, usually do so on PBS. Not this time, as 2003 turned out the finest batch of documentaries in ages, including "My Architect," "Capturing the Friedmans" and the film I think will finally bring director Errol Morris a long overdue Academy Award: "The Fog of War," a compelling look at the mistaken assumptions behind the Vietnam War as told (but only to a point) by former Defense Secretary Robert McNamara.

Original Score: Howard Shore worked themes for the individual characters around the broad motifs of the movie itself to create music that ran through your head for weeks after you saw the film. He takes the prize for "Lord of the Rings: Return of the King."

Original Song: Would you recognize any of these tunes if you heard them? Well, OK, there's "A Kiss at the End of the Rainbow" from "A Mighty Wind," but it's played for laughs until the end of the film. Maybe you'd get "Belleville Rendez-vous" from "The Triplets of Belleville," but as much for the film's unusual graphic look as for the music. Two songs from "Cold Mountain" are nominated, but who can tell them apart? By default, then, I pick "Into the West" from "Return of the King."

Art Direction: All five nominees are period pieces, but the winner figures to be the one from the period that art director Grant Major could not research historically and therefore had to create from whole cloth: "Return of the King."

Cinematography: Of all the nominees in this field, the one whose photography impressed me the most and created images I still remember with pleasure is the one I think will win: "Seabiscuit," with John Schwartzman's vivid racetrack photography and beautiful vistas.

Costume Design: Here's a tough one. Four of the past five Oscars in this category have gone to period musicals or films about performers. All of this year's nominees take place in the past, but they are either dramas or action sagas. "Return of the King" is nominated, but do you really think of the costumes in that movie -- or its predecessors? On the theory that the film with the second most nominations has to win a few awards, I'll guess voters will remember the spiffy naval uniforms and everyday sailors' garb designed by Wendy Stiles in "Master and Commander: The Far Side of the World."

Film Editing: The American Film Editors went for "Return of the King," edited by Jamie Selkirk. I see no reason why Oscar voters will disagree.

Sound Editing: When in doubt, go for the war film. Since "Return of the King" is not nominated in this category, that leaves the Oscar for Richard King for "Master and Commander: The Far Side of the World."

Sound Mixing: For whatever reason, the winner in this category often differs from the winner for sound editing. "Return of the King" has been nominated here, so I'll pick it to win.

Visual Effects: What do you think? return to "the King."

Makeup: The biggest shocker in all the nominations is that the person responsible for Theron's transformation in "Monster" is NOT nominated in this category. Therefore, I figure the people responsible for Depp's outrageous makeup in "Pirates of the Caribbean," Ve Neill and Martin Samuel, will take the prize.

Documentary Short: Movies about individuals or personal stories have won this category of late, so I'll pick "Ferry Tales," about commuters who have formed their own subculture in the ladies' room of the Staten Island Ferry.

Animated Short: Studio politics rears its ugly head in this most unlikely and obscure of Oscar categories. Roy Disney, nephew of Walt, has been nominated for "Destino," a project that reportedly was started nearly 60 years ago. He has launched a campaign to oust Disney chairman Michael Eisner that has support in several quarters, including veteran animators upset that Disney has shut down its traditional animation facilities. The chief competitor in this category is "Boundin'," from Pixar Animation, which seemingly can do no wrong. It just severed its long-standing ties to Disney in search of a better contract. Who wins? Not Eisner. Maybe enough people in Hollywood hate him to vote the award to "Destino." That's my guess, at any rate.

Live Action Short: Two of the five nominees are set in Sarajevo at war, another deals with brothers wanting to enlist after Pearl Harbor. The mindset seems clear, the winner is another story. Toss a coin and hope for the best: "Two Soldiers."

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