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Sunday, March 31, 2002

The Pirates were 69-93 in the 2000 season for the second time in three years. It was their eighth consecutive losing season. They fired Gene Lamont as manager. Morale in the clubhouse was atrocious. The atmosphere at Three Rivers Stadium was depressing.

It can't possibly get any worse, you said at this time last year.

But it got a lot worse.

The Pirates were 62-100 last season in beautiful new PNC Park and were one of the big jokes of baseball.

Don't make the same mistake.

This season could be uglier.

It might not show up in the standings. It's awfully hard to lose 100 games once, let alone two years in a row, although the Pirates certainly have a chance. Have you looked closely at their starting rotation? Ron Villone, the opening day starter against the New York Mets tomorrow, couldn't find a job until the Pirates signed him to a minor-league contract right before spring training. And he's a left-hander! The lack of interest probably had something to do with his 2-6 record and 6.91 earned-run average as a starter for Colorado and Houston last season and his failure to average even five innings per start. If he can be the Pirates' No. 1 starter, there's no reason John Candelaria can't make a comeback and win 20 games. And he's 48!

Villone wouldn't make any other team's rotation. None of the Pirates' five starters would be a No. 1, a No. 2 or even a No. 3 on another club. Kip Wells has a chance to be a big winner one day. You have to love the trade Dave Littlefield made to get him, Josh Fogg and Sean Lowe from the Chicago White Sox for Todd Ritchie. But it's unrealistic to expect Wells to carry the team this season. It's also unfair to expect Kris Benson to do it when he joins the Pirates in late April or early May. It should be next year before he's fully recovered and dominant again after major elbow surgery.

There is no better proof of how little faith Littlefield and Lloyd McClendon have in the rotation than this: They are opening the season with 12 pitchers instead of an extra position player, even though the Pirates have six off days in the first six weeks of the season and figure to have a rainout or two.

This team definitely could lose 100 again.

But even if it doesn't -- say it goes 72-90 and makes a 10-game improvement -- it still could be a worse season.

It's easy to imagine Brian Giles and Jason Kendall quietly asking to be traded and maybe getting their wish. They are smart guys. They want to win. Giles played in the postseason with Cleveland and knows how much fun it is. Kendall has been in the big leagues six years, never played on a winning team and has a pretty good idea of what he's missing. They know it's not going to happen with the Pirates. That could make them miserable in a hurry and their clubhouse a miserable place to be.

It's easy to imagine McClendon being fired by the All-Star break. It wouldn't be fair. He's a good man who, from day one, has been in a situation where he has no chance to succeed. But life isn't fair. He wasn't hired by Littlefield, who won't be afraid to make a change if he thinks it will help.

It's also easy to imagine a lot of empty seats at PNC Park. The Pirates drew a franchise-record 2.4 million last season. They'll be lucky to get 1.6 million this season. They had 19 sellouts last season. So far, not even the home opener against Cincinnati April 8 is sold out. If not for the six fireworks nights and four bobblehead doll giveaways, there probably wouldn't be a sellout all season.

Hey, the baseball might be bad, but at least you can get a Pirate Parrot bobblehead doll!

Nobody with the Pirates wants to hear any of this, of course. McClendon will tell you he's excited about everything about his team, including his rotation. He'll mention how much Pokey Reese and Adrian Brown will help the defense and the pitching, how much a healthy Kendall and a healthy Kevin Young will help the offense.

What do you expect him to say?

McClendon is the same guy who talked before last season of frequently resting Young's bad knees because "we're going to need him in September when we're in it ... "

In it?

McClendon also is the same guy who had this to say before last season of Derek Bell's many critics: "They don't realize that what he brings to the table is enormous. The talk, the walk, the attitude, the swagger ... Everything about that guy is about winning. That's contagious. We need more of it."

Yes, he really said that.

The point is McClendon has to talk a good game, but that doesn't mean the Pirates can play it. They can't.

Put them down for another 69-93 season, another last-place finish.

Ron Cook can be reached at rcook@post-gazette.com.