EmailEmail
PrintPrint
Smizik: Pitt's chances are still good
Wednesday, March 17, 2004

With the traditional 48-hour whining period complete, it's time to get down to the business of evaluating the chances of the Pitt basketball team in the NCAA tournament.

And the question is this:

Can a seriously flawed team overcome its deficiencies and advance to the Final Four?

In the case of Pitt, a team that has difficulty scoring from beyond 8 feet, the answer is: Possibly.

In normal circumstances a team with Pitt's shooting problems would have no chance of getting close to playing for the championship of college basketball. But the Panthers, who play Central Florida in Milwaukee Friday, are so strong in other phases of the game that their inadequacies can be overcome.

Proof of that is the Big East Conference tournament finale when the Panthers lost by three points to Connecticut, one of the most talented teams in the nation. In that game, the three Pitt players who most shoot from the outside -- Carl Krauser, Jaron Brown and Julius Page -- made 9 of 29 shots from the field, a miserable 31 percent.

If they had combined to shoot 10 of 29, a slightly less miserable 35 percent, Pitt probably wins the game.

The shooting shortcomings of the three have been well documented. Krauser is an average outside shooter, capable of getting hot and turning this deficiency into a plus. Brown, a swingman, is not a good shooter and knows it. Paige, once the team's top outside threat, is mired in a long slump that has sapped his confidence. It might just take one good game to regain that confidence, but such is Page's reluctance to shoot that this miracle is not likely to happen.

And while on the subject of Page, why was he the team's best option to make a 3-pointer in the final seconds of the Connecticut loss? He should have been the last option.

There's not likely to be an upgrade in the shooting in the tournament, which means Pitt will have to win by other means. It has proven it can do so, as evidenced by its 29-4 record. The Panthers excel in virtually every other phase of the game. Most notably, they make it difficult for other teams to score, which makes their inability to score less costly a factor.

Their seeding, despite having set off a nationwide chorus of whining, is another reason why the Panthers have a chance to get to the Final Four. Their situation is not as precarious as some would suggest.

It's true, no No. 3 seed has as difficult a game as Pitt possibly faces in the second round against Wisconsin. Not only will the Badgers be playing in front of what amounts to a home crowd, they are considered by almost everyone except the Selection Committee to be better than a sixth seed.

In effect, Pitt will be playing a fourth or fifth seed on the road.

But since when don't you have to win tough games to get to the Final Four? Pitt just happens to have one a little earlier than other teams.

But should it get past Wisconsin, and that's not asking all that much, Pitt has as clear a path to the Final Four as a team might want.

Wasn't everyone hoping Pitt would be in the same region where Saint Joseph's would be the No. 1 seed? Well, that wish came true. The Panthers have a No. 1 seed they can beat. They have a No. 2 seed, in Oklahoma State, they can beat.

If the Panthers had been placed in another region, the Atlanta, for example, their road to the Final Four would have been more difficult with the likes of Duke, Mississippi State, Cincinnati, Illinois and North Carolina in that region.

As far as Pitt being disrespected with a No. 3 seed, why would anyone be surprised that a team ranked ninth in the nation would be given a third seed?

Pitt's shooting deficiencies precede them and opponents will be attempting to take advantage of that shortcoming. Defenses will collapse on Chris Taft and Chevon Troutman and challenge the Panthers to beat them from the outside.

If Pitt were a pro team, it would have dealt for a shooter at the trading deadline. It's not as if the Panthers need a great shooter. They just need someone who can come off the bench and keep defenses honest.

That, of course, can't happen. But this is a resourceful, experienced team. There can't be many, if any, teams as tough-minded as the Panthers. They have the ability to find the way.

The path is there: Central Florida, Wisconsin, Oklahoma State, Saint Joseph's. Should you bet on it? No. Can it happen? Yes.

First published on March 17, 2004 at 12:00 am
EmailEmail
PrintPrint